PERIKATAN Nasional (PN) saw more support as the Malay vote continued to shift, particularly in northern Selangor, which enabled the coalition to establish a larger presence in the state. 

This prevented Pakatan Harapan (PH)-Barisan Nasional (BN) from attaining a two-thirds majority, analysts said.

Nevertheless, PN had a limited impact in Negri Sembilan and Penang, where it only saw notable success in Permatang Pauh. It won all the seats – Penanti, Permatang Pasir, and Seberang Jaya – in the parliamentary constituency, which it also won in the general election. These victories were remarkable in that they occurred in the stronghold of Prime Minister  Anwar Ibrahim stronghold.

While the PH-BN alliance secured a super majority in Negri Sembilan and Penang, it faced significant defeat in Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu by PN.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said yesterday’s election results signalled the importance of the unity government addressing the concerns of Malays in Selangor. Hisomuddin urged the Anwar administration to engage with the people of Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu to prevent further erosion of Malay support.

However, Hisomuddin also emphasised that PN should not become complacent, as the coalition struggled to gain significant non-Malay support. He stressed the need for PN to broaden its appeal beyond the Malay voter base.

“We correctly predicted that Malay votes would shift towards PN, and the results confirmed our analysis. PN secured more Malay seats in Selangor. The government must now prioritise addressing Malay voters’ concerns and bridge the growing gap between Malay and non-Malay voting patterns.

“Neglecting PN states could result in further loss of Malay support. Additionally, relying solely on Malay support is insufficient for PN’s electoral success,” said Hisomuddin.

Regarding the performance of PH-BN in the northern region, Hisomuddin criticised its campaign strategy, which resulted in the loss of many seats in Kedah. He called for a thorough analysis of the campaign’s shortcomings.

Hisomuddin said there were instances of protest by Umno members, who had abstained from voting. 

Azmi Hassan of Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research emphasised the need for a study to comprehend the mutual influence of BN and PH in the state elections and the resulting voting patterns.

“Overall, the state election results maintained the status quo, with PN doing well in Selangor. Opposition presence in Selangor increased compared to Negri Sembilan and Penang. However, BN managed to make some progress in Terengganu even though it did not winn any seats. 

“The clear trend is the swing of Malay votes towards PN,” Azmi said.

Mazlan Ali, an academic in Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, attributed BN’s loss of traditional Malay seats to PN to protest votes driven by dissatisfaction with Umno. However, he noted that despite the loss, PH-BN garnered more votes in Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu.

“Based on my earlier survey, 20-30% of Umno members were likely to vote for PN. The election results validate this trend, as PN secured seats in Malay constituencies,” he said.

After this setback, PH-BN will likely make a concerted effort to reclaim their seats in Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu. Anwar Ibrahim is unlikely to remain passive in the face of this challenge. Despite political fatigue, there has been an increase in votes compared to the previous general election.”

Iman Research programme director Badrul Hisyam Ismail attributed the swing of Malay votes to PN to dissatisfaction with Umno. He said Umno’s standing among the community has further deteriorated since the 2018 general election.

“Umno’s poor performance contributed to this trend. Even PKR faced challenges. Only DAP fared well. This trend has persisted since 2018, and PH is now burdened with these consequences,” he said.

“Public sentiment on Umno has shifted, and PH could have secured seats in Kelantan, Kedah, and Terengganu had it stood on its own. PH needs to reassess its collaboration with BN. 

Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will undoubtedly face significant pressure now.” – August 13, 2023.