COULD minority Indians hold the key to wins in the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections? 

Analysts are unsure due to Salahuddin Ayub’s huge wins in the last polls but activists accusing the ruling coalition of ignoring the Indian plight say it could affect voter turnout and victory margins. 

Their assessment came after activist Arun Doraisamy urged Indians to boycott the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections next Saturday in protest against Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s participation in the conversion ceremony of an Indian youngster.

International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said several incidents by the Anwar-led government could “trigger” a possible snub by the Indians at the by-elections.

He said certain activists have used such incidents to their advantage by aggravating the matter, although recent trends suggest that the majority of Indian voters had chosen PH.  

“However, there have been issues lately that appeared to suggest perceived neglect of the Indian plight, such as the decision not to nominate former Penang deputy chief minister P. Ramasamy in the state elections, Anwar’s ‘bullying’ of an Indian matriculation student and the conversion of an Indian man to Islam.

“While these are not necessarily deliberate actions to upset the Indians, some activists have used this to suggest the unity government’s failure to address issues that concern the Indians,” the political science assistant professor told The Malaysian Insight.

Tunku Mohar said the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) unity coalition should not dismiss the importance of Indian votes and that they must reach out to the community to assure them of the government’s commitment to help them.

“Any drop in voter turnout may have a negative impact on PH. Elections in Malaysia have now become more unpredictable,” he added.

The Indian community make up about 12% of the voters in the Pulai parliament constituency, while the figure is close to around 3% in Simpang Jeram.

According to the Election Commission (EC), the Pulai parliament seat has 44.18% (73,619) Malay voters, 40.46% (67,434) Chinese voters, 12.31% (20,508) Indian voters and 3.06% (5,092) of other ethnicity.

The Simpang Jeram state seat is a semi-rural area under the Bakri parliamentary constituency, which has 40,379 eligible voters, the EC said.

In last year’s general election, Amanah deputy president Salahuddin won the Pulai parliamentary seat by a 33,174 vote-majority in a three-cornered battle, defeating BN’s Nur Jazlan Mohamed and Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) Loh Kah Yong. Almost 71% of the 165,313 registered voters came out to cast their ballots.

In Simpang Jeram, Salahuddin won a four-cornered fight by 2,399 vote-margin, where only close to 22,000 of the 40,000 registered electorate turned out to vote.

Both seats will witness three-cornered contests, involving PH, PN and Independent candidates.

Meanwhile, University of Tasmania’s James Chin also concurred with Tunku Mohar, saying PH-BN would be the main casualty if such a boycott takes place.

“The general thinking is that in places like Johor, the Indians would vote for PH,” the professor of Asian Studies said.

However, Chin was of the view that no such boycott would take place in the by-elections.

He said although the Indians are unhappy with the Anwar-led government, they would rather vote for the PH-BN unity coalition rather than the extremist PAS.

“Their (Indians) thinking is that they really don’t have a choice because they are really afraid of PAS.

“So, even though they don’t like PH, they are willing to vote for PH to carve a better future for the Indian community,” he said.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia sees Arun as nothing but an opportunist.

He said the activist is highlighting this issue for his own benefit.

“This activist is taking this opportunity to popularise himself. His reason for doing so is extremely racist and has a certain element of interest.

“I don’t think the majority of the Indian community will be affected by it,” he said.

Mazlan believes there are still many rational Indians who will make decisions for their best interest as well as for the nation.

The Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections, which will be held on September 9, were triggered by the death of Salahuddin Ayub on July 23. – September 3, 2023.