IN the recently concluded six-state elections, the “green wave” – a term generally used to describe the rise of Perikatan Nasional (PN) and particularly its backbone party PAS – which was first observed during the 2022 general election (GE), seemed to have continued.

PN managed to retain the three states in which they were the incumbent government and made significant inroads in the three states ruled by Pakatan Harapan (PH).

In particular, PN’s clean sweep in Terengganu was the first time in more than two decades where a political coalition had managed to win all seats in a state assembly.

The last time something similar happened was in the 1999 GE when Barisan Nasional (BN) won all the state (and parliamentary) seats in Johor and Negri Sembilan. 

A comparison with the results of the 1999 GE is probably something we need to look into, since it is what I would term the “proto-green wave”.

Malaysia has existed as an independent nation for over six decades with a rich electoral history and various political configurations among its diverse political players.

As such, whatever political situation we find ourselves to be in at the moment, there is always a similar precedent in the past that we could look into for lessons.

Take the famous “political tsunami” of the 2008 GE for example, a watershed moment in our country’s history.

If we look at the results of the 1969 and 2008 GEs, there were many similarities beyond the fact that the 1969 Alliance and 2008 BN lost their two-thirds majority.

For instance, in both GEs, the rebellious sentiment seemed particularly strong in the more urbanised, developed states of Selangor, Perak and Penang.

PAS in both GEs managed to retain Kelantan but failed to win back Terengganu, which it had previously won in 1959 and 1999. They, however, made strong inroads into Kedah in both GEs.

The 1969 GE is what I could call the “proto-political tsunami”. Its momentum was unfortunately killed in its cradle due to the May 13 racial riot and Emergency rule. Fortunately, this was not repeated in 2008.

Similarly, the 1999 GE also foreshadowed the 2022-2023 green wave.

After Anwar was sacked and jailed by Dr Mahathir Mohamad in 1998 for dubious charges, the subsequent Reformasi movement severely eroded Umno’s legitimacy, particularly among the young Malays, who had an increasingly negative view of Dr Mahathir and his government for his perceived corruption and authoritarianism.

This culminated in the 1999 GE, which saw Umno suffer heavy losses while PAS won big and became the biggest opposition party.

The fear of the rise of Islamists had caused the non-Malays to throw their support behind BN, which ensured that they retained the two-thirds majority.

While on the government side many Umno ministers lost their seats, on the opposition side it was DAP heavyweights such as Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh who lost in both the parliamentary and state seats they contested.

In the aftermath, the rise of support for Islamists, particularly among Malay youth, became the hot topic of discussion among the pundits of Malaysian politics. 

“Umno is in decline, the Islamist opposition is rising and the government is increasingly relying on non-Malays for support” was a frequent talking point then. Sound familiar in 2023? 

There are many similarities between the 1999 proto-green wave and its 2022-23 incarnation.

First, PAS obtained its best results in both instances. It had won 27 parliamentary seats in 1999 but had not been able to repeat this success even in the GEs of 2008 (21 seats), 2013 (21) and 2018 (18) where oppositions on the whole won big.

Only in 2022 did it managed to outdo its 1999 result with a 43-seat victory.

The geographical spreads of both waves are also similar. BN managed to win all the parliamentary and state seats in Negri Sembilan and Johor despite the Reformasi movement in 1999.

In the 2022 GE, the worst results for PN in the peninsula happened in both these states. It failed to win a single parliamentary seat in Negri Sembilan and only won two (both by Bersatu) in Johor.

In the 2023 six-state elections, PN had its worst result in Negri Sembilan where it only won five seats while 14 out of the 19 seats won by BN.

What lesson could the unity government learn from the proto-green wave?

The proto-green wave was eventually halted when Dr Mahathir resigned and his successor, Abdullah Badawi, initiated reform and started an anti-corruption campaign where several figures within government or close to government were charged in court.

In the subsequent 2004 GE, BN won its biggest victory ever as it managed to win back the Malay vote while keeping the support of the non-Malays.

If we extrapolate this to the current situation, it means Zahid would need to resign as Umno president.

Anwar will need to do more on reform and he needs to carry out an anti-corruption campaign and have his own government members investigated and charged, not merely targeting PN’s politicians.

The question is, would they even think of doing these? – August 14, 2023.

* Rayner Sylvester Yeo is a member of Agora Society. He was born in Sabah and is currently residing in Kuala Lumpur. Having grown up in a mixed-ethnic, multi-faith family and spent his working life in public, private and non-profit sectors, he believes diversity is the spice of life.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.