CALLS by Umno for an extension of the bank loan moratorium until June next year are a form of pressure on Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) government, said analysts.

Even though Umno is a government party, it is no secret that it wants Parliament dissolved and for snap elections to be held as it continues to feel side-lined by Muhyiddin’s party, the smaller Bersatu.

Analysts said various Umno leaders have been vocal in their demands and criticism about Budget 2021, which will be voted on at the policy stage on Thursday.

The vote will test the strength of Muhyiddin’s government and the legitimacy of the prime minister who faces 25 motions of no-confidence and two motions of confidence.

Political scientist Dr Mazlan Ali said there is still a high chance that Umno MPs won’t support Muhyiddin’s budget.

Since the supply bill was tabled on November 6, Umno has been critical of it, demanding adjustments and raising the issue of extending the blanket bank loan moratorium, which ended in September.

“Najib Razak has been putting forth conditions for supporting the budget. Umno has been consistent in saying it will not support the budget. 

“Pakatan Harapan is also opposed to the budget and will only support it if adjustments are made. So, the risk of the supply bill failing is high,” Mazlan told The Malaysian Insight.

Najib, who is the BN backbenchers’ club chairman, said last week the party has two conditions if it were to support Budget 2021. They are a one-off RM10,000 withdrawal from Account 1 of the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and for a blanket extension of the loan moratorium until next June.

Mazlan said the situation is dangerous for the government because the numbers PN has depends on Umno.

Of PN’s 50 MPs, 43 are from BN, with Umno holding 39. Muhyiddin’s Bersatu has 31 MPs. The two other parties with the most seats are PAS (18) and GPS (18).

PN currently has 111 MPs – following the death of Grik MP Hasbullah Osman – against the opposition’s 108, after the death of Batu Sapi MP Liew Vui Keong on October 2.

Mazlan said PN’s refusal to heed previous calls for the blanket moratorium extension, which was raised by DAP previously, and now by Umno, will spell trouble for Muhyiddin.

It is putting Muhyiddin in a bind as a blanket extension would cause problems for the banking and financial sector, while not allowing an extension is politically detrimental.

“Umno’s request to postpone loan repayments is to put pressure on Muhyiddin and less to do with the economy. They basically want Muhyiddin to dissolve Parliament,” Mazlan said.

The Universiti Teknologi Mara academic and political observer said Umno’s strategy is to pressure the prime minister into a compromise by using “unreasonable demands”.

“Umno wants to dissolve Parliament because it is confident it can win the next election.”

Dr Lau Zhe Wei of the International Islamic University, however, believes otherwise, saying even if its demands are not met, Umno may still support the budget.

The current wrangle is akin to a wrestling match between Bersatu and Umno, he said.

“Once either party compromises, they may be considered weak by supporters or competitors.

“Also, the impact of the supply bill’s failure will be too great. What benefits will Umno get if it is not passed? Unless they are confident they can pull PN down.

“I think Umno will oppose it but not to the extent that they will not vote to pass it.”

Lau also believes there is a chance PN will adopt Umno’s demands for the budget, as the government relies on the party for support.

“They (PN) will not change the budget for Pakatan Harapan, but will they change the budget for Umno? If you do not reform for Umno, will Umno support you?”

Both Mazlan and Lau also feel the veiled threats to Umno MPs to toe the line and support Budget 2021 carry little weight in the current political climate.

Individual MPs are bolder in voicing a different stand from the party, as Umno is weaker now.

“They are not as strong as they were in the past when BN was in power. Individuals have the guts to speak up because parties are not as strong as they used to be,” Mazlan said.

“If it were 20 years ago, then MPs might have been afraid to voice out because the people supported the party rather than individual politicians.”

Lau also expects MPs to vote based on their own discretion.

He cited Gua Musang MP and Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah as one such lawmaker.

“Who would dare go against Tengku Razaleigh?” Lau added.

He also cited Najib, who issued conditional support for the budget, as another example of an MP who had little to lose if he did not obey orders to approve the supply bill.

“(Najib) may or may not be nominated for the next elections,” said Lau.

Both analysts were referring to remarks by Umno’s Annuar Musa who said that the party should stop claiming it is being treated unfairly by Muhyiddin and Bersatu.

Annuar said that Umno should remember its time being the opposition after losing the 2018 general election for the first time in six decades. – November 24, 2020.