UMNO would quickly become irrelevant and die a natural death if it continued to push for cooperation with PAS, which stood to gain more from a tie-up, according to a think tank.

This was the findings of  recent survey conducted by the Centre for Governance and Political Studies (Cent-GPS), based on the results of three recent by-elections in Selangor.

The results, said Cent-GPS, pointed to vulnerabilities on Umno’s part caused by its partnership with PAS.

An initial comparative analysis of the three by-elections showed that PAS stood to benefit from its partnership with Umno, as Umno supporters were likely to support the Islamist party.

Within hours of the release of the analysis yesterday, two senior Umno leaders – Mustapa Mohamed and Anifah Aman – quit the party.

Their departures followed the PAS muktamar last weekend, which was attended by Umno president Ahmad Zd Hamidi and other senior party leaders.

While PAS at its muktamar voted to let its Syura Council decide which party PAS should partner, and in which form the partnership should take, not everyone in Umno is keen on cooperation with the Islamist party.

Former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin is one of those who is vocal against any such partnership with PAS.

“The Malay-Islamic narrative seems to be working for PAS, not Umno. Perhaps it is due to Umno’s now tarnished credibility, or the fact that many of its older leaders are still lingering around,’ ” Cent-GPS said.

“The biggest sign we saw from the Sungai Kandis and Seri Setia by-elections was that PAS was capable of tapping into Umno’s vote bank but Umno could not do the same with PAS voters.”

In other words, Umno voters were more likely to back PAS than PAS voters were willing to back BN, it added.

This meant a Umno-PAS partnership would in fact shift dominance as the “Malay go-to party” from Umno to PAS.

Pakatan Harapan won the Seri Setia seat on September 8 when its PKR candidate Halimey Abu Bakar captured 13,725 votes to defeat PAS’ Dr Halimah Ali, who secured 9,698 votes.

In Balakong, PH candidate Wong Siew Ki of DAP secured the seat by raking in 22,508 votes, defeating her MCA opponent Tan Chee Teong with a 18,533-vote majority.

On August 8, PH candidate Zawawi Ahmad Mughni of PKR won the Sungai Kandis by-election with 15,427 votes giving him a 5,842 majority over Umno’s Lokman Noor Adam.

In Sungai Kandis, PAS stayed out of the polls to give way to Umno, and the latter repaid the favour in Seri Setia. In Balakong, PAS also threw its support behind the MCA candidate.

The think-tank noted that after the by-elections, Umno leaders appeared more open about their partnership with PAS, whilst PAS leaders seemed more reserved, “fuelling perception that Umno wants this relationship more than PAS”.

In its outlook, Cent-GPS said its data pointed to a “cautious conclusion” for Umno – that the once mighty Malay party was now kneeling before PAS not as a strategic winning strategy, but for its very survival.

“These by-elections showed us that PAS voters were quite independent of the need to vote for an Umno candidate. In contrast, as we saw in Seri Setia compared with Sungai Kandis, Umno voters were more likely to jump onto the PAS bandwagon.

“It is worth repeating here that the Umno-PAS partnership, whether Umno members and leaders have noticed or not, was in fact aiding the transfer of Umno voters to PAS.

“Whether Umno leaders recognised this or not, their handshake could spell the end of Umno’s relevance in the political landscape.”

Cent-GPS said a permanent pact between the two parties meant there would no longer be clear ideological distinctions between the right-wing PAS and the moderate Umno.

“Umno’s weight of corruption is still a heavy burden to carry, one that PAS may wish to live without as it slowly wins over Umno voters.

Cent-GPS said “inconclusive leadership” in Umno in the months or years ahead could mean that should Umno terminate the partnership with PAS, the BN party would end up with  fewer votes than PAS.

“Continuing the partnership is a sure way for the end of Umno,” it said, adding that Umno was no longer the force it was.

However, its outlook was better for PAS as the thin- tank said under the present trend, PAS could regain Malay votes and eventually replace Umno in leading the opposition pact.

It might even form an alliance with MCA and MIC, like it did with DAP in the past. – September 19, 2018.