THE voting pattern of the last general election (GE15) cannot be used to determine how the six state elections will play out, a research-based firm director said. 

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said there are several factors that could change the voting pattern. 

“Among the variable indicators that could influence the voting patterns are increase in the number of voters, new voter dynamics, turnout percentages, and the issues highlighted may be different,” Hisommudin told The Malaysian Insight. 

“With the automatic registration now, voters of sufficient age will be automatically included in the electoral roll. 

“During GE15, the Election Commission used the electoral registration until the second quarter of 2022. If (the EC applies to) use the automatic registration until the first quarter of 2023 for the state polls, then the increase in voters for nine months needs to be carefully considered by the competing parties. 

“This is because the increase in the number of new voters may be significant enough to change the results in the marginally won seats,” Hisommudin said. 

Voter sentiment is also unclear after the formation of the unity government, he added. 

In GE15, there was unprecedented “green wave” support for former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN). 

The coalition comprising Muhyiddin’s Bersatu, PAS, and Gerakan won 74 parliamentary seats in its maiden federal polls, making it the second largest coalition in Dewan Rakyat after Pakatan Harapan (PH), which won 82 seats. 

Once dominant Barisan Nasional (BN), comprising the country’s oldest and largest political party Umno, suffered a humiliating defeat, clinching only 30 seats. Umno contributed 26 of them. 

With no political party or coalition having the majority to form the government, it led to the nation’s first ever hung parliament that lasted a week. 

Following a royal decree from the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, a unity government was formed between long-time foes PH and BN. 

Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu are due to hold elections mid-year. 

Young voters can affect results 

Hisommudin said the second factor that could influence the voting pattern was young voters. 

He said voters aged between 18 and 25 as a “very volatile” group. 

“According to findings, those from the said age segment proved that they voted based on trends that occurred during the last general election. 

“They do not have a basic understanding of issues and (political) parties like the other age groups,” he said. 

Hisommudin said voter turnout could also affect the results. 

He cited the Johor polls, where only 51% turned out to vote, as an example. 

“Taking into account that the upcoming state elections will not change the federal government, (and) voters are usually less excited to go out and vote. 

“Non-Malay voters, especially Chinese voters, followed the trend in the previous state election, recording low turnout,” he said. 

Hisomuddin said current issues could also influence the voting pattern. 

“State elections are held to find a menteri besar or chief minister and a new state government. 

“In other words, state and local-level issues will play an important role in swaying the voters. 

Hisommudin said the freezing of lynchpin party Bersatu’s accounts and the indictments of PN leaders could affect the coalition.  

He said even parties in the unity government are having difficulty convincing Malays to vote for them. 

“The situation is the same for the PH, BN, unity government. They are still struggling to win over the Malay segment that greatly supported PN in GE15. 

“The state elections will prove which Malay party is more Malay support.”

The dates for the six state polls are yet to be fixed. 

Last week, Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow said the state assembly would dissolve on June 28. 

The Selangor assembly will automatically dissolve on June 25, Kelantan (June 28), Terengganu (July 1), Negri Sembilan (July 2), and Kedah (July 4). 

Elections must be held within 60 days of dissolution. All six states are expected to hold polls simultaneously. – June 13, 2023.