THE general election campaign has now moved into the last leg, and while aspiring candidates have tossed their hats into the ring earlier, it is now pundits’ and scholars’ turn to do that, as far as the prediction contest goes. 

One source predicts Barisan Nasional (BN) will win 32 seats, Perikatan Nasional (48), and Pakatan Harapan (99). Another source gives BN and PH about an equal number of seats while a PH-friendly source has predicted that BN will win 39, PN (54) with PH expected to win 105 seats. 

While they differ, they must be commended for at least attempting to provide information and clues for people to grasp, if not for any concrete reason, at least as a topic for coffee place discussions and debates. One source, however, Endeavour-MGC was reported to have forecasted based on range, in which BN is expected to win between 58 and 73 seats, PN (10-40), and PH (67-82). While these rather wide-ranging predictions may less likely end up backfiring, they add no utility, statistically or meaningless, scientifically. 

All of them do however agree on one thing – no single coalition will be able to secure a majority. This, I agree as well. 

With these surveys portraying that PH will win the most number of seats, there is a sort of euphoria among the bloc’s supporters even though there is much nail-biting anxiety on who PH’s future government-forming partner will be. 

I, however, call this irrational exuberance, for two reasons. One, when the results are finally out, on the night of November 19 or in the wee hours of the next morning, with no coalition winning a majority, PH will scramble to form a government with others. The same others will be intensely courted by BN and PN. A zero-sum game scenario ensues where a party can only ally with a single coalition and cannot split their support. In such a scenario, BN and PN stand a better chance of teaming up with them because of current or past relationships; almost certain of forming a Malay-Muslim unity government. 

PH, on the other hand, has burned bridges with them. PH’s big tent approach has fallen on the wayside, with the snub on Warisan, Malaysian Advancement Party, and Parti Sosialis Malaysia. With their support, PH is likely to hit the 112-seat goal, especially in this election, where any coalition that secures 105 seats need not seek help but sit back and wait, because there will be enough parties to aggressively court it. Many of PH’s policies, were, on paper, good, but without execution, either because of ego or personal greed. When PH does not have a comfortable East Malaysian support, to win a majority of seats, PH needs both about 90% of Chinese and about 90% of Indian votes. This will not happen this time around because Indian votes will be split between PH and BN. 

In conclusion, my prediction is a Malay-Muslim unity government with PH unlikely to be a part of it. PH supporters’ excitement is nothing more than irrational exuberance. 

Two good news for PH, however – the 16th general election will be a good year for PH, and until then, it will be Anwar Ibrahim’s strong, formidable, and convincing opposition voice, not the majority. – November 16, 2022.

* Prof. Dr N. Suguman Narayanan reads The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.