PAKATAN Harapan (PH) stands to lose Negri Sembilan to Barisan Nasional (BN), as momentum swings in the latter’s favour, political analysts said.

If the 15th general election is called soon, BN’s victorious performance in the Johor polls last Saturday could continue, with pact set to give tough fight for Selangor and Penang.

“If the trend continues, PH risks losing Negri Sembilan, where its majority is slim,” said International Islamic University of Malaysia’s Dr Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar.

PH has 20 seats in the Negri Sembilan legislative assembly, while BN has 16.

PH took over the state from BN in the 14th general election in 2018. Other states it wrested from BN were Johor and Malacca, which it lost to BN in recent state elections. PH, however, retained Selangor and Penang.

Initially, PH also controlled Perak, Kedah and Sabah but this changed following the “Sheraton move” in February 2020, with several lawmakers switching political alliances after PH was ousted at federal level.

With Bersatu leaving PH, it then lost the Kedah and Perak governments through defections, and later Sabah, in September 2020 through state elections.

Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs also agreed Negri Sembilan could be the next state to return to BN.

“Negri Sembilan is a distinct possibility as the difference in assembly seat numbers between the two major camps is small,” he said.

For James Chin of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute, Selangor is the next state PH has to watch and not take for granted, especially if the 15th general election is held in the next six months.

The opposition coalition will still give BN a tough fight in Selangor and in Penang as well, although BN’s ascendance and momentum appears to be growing stronger.

“PH can hang on to Penang because there is no comparable strong Chinese, or multiracial party that can challenge them. So, they are likely to stay in power there.

“It is highly unlikely Penang will fall but Selangor to me is 50-50 now.

“The reason I say that is because BN has the momentum now and the chances are there if the election is held in the next six months,” he said.

Tunku Mohar sees the possibility of split votes in Selangor’s rural seats as a threat to PH because of former PKR deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali’s defection to Bersatu.

He said “Azmin’s elements” that are still within Selangor PKR could affect PH’s chances in retaining the seats held by PKR.

“Furthermore, vote-splitting may be an advantage to BN, as we have seen in Malacca and Johor.”

In the recent Johor elections, BN secured a landslide victory over the opposition, winning 40 out of 56 state seats.

According to Election Commission data, the opposition could have won an additional 17 seats if they had contested under one banner.

All analysts said that a disunited opposition cannot hope to beat BN. This much was clear from GE14.

“The message from Malacca and Johor is clear. Without straight fights in elections, BN holds an advantage because it has established grassroots, unlike the other parties,” Tunku Mohar said.

Oh and Chin said that each member of the opposition had their own capabilities in drawing support. Where PKR’s Anwar Ibrahim was not able to draw Malay votes, Dr Mahathir Mohamad made up for it.

“Anwar did not have the same pull but Dr Mahathir also benefitted from PH pulling non-Malay votes for his then Bersatu. So it was a symbiotic relationship,” Oh said.

Chin said Dr Mahathir, who was then PH chairman, was able to break BN’s stronghold on rural votes.

“Dr Mahathir’s contribution is that he managed to get one third of the rural Malay vote. So, that splits the rural areas because traditionally the rural areas were BN’s stronghold. Splitting the rural areas and, combining this with the urban votes, PH was the strong favourite.

“So, DAP had the Chinese votes, PKR had the mixed votes and Dr Mahathir had the rural Malay votes – together they won,” Chin said. – March 16, 2022.