UMNO’S manoeuvrings in Perak have no bearing on federal politics or outside the state yet as the party is only keen on taking over the menteri besar’s post, said analysts.

They told The Malaysian Insight that Umno has had its eyes on Perak since after the 14th general election and this was the party’s long-awaited moment to grab power.

Tasmania University’s Asian Studies professor James Chin said Perak has always been at the forefront of political stunts and the motion of no confidence against Menteri Besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu was no surprise.

“Umno, of course, will be pushing hard because they want their person to fill in the MB post. It will have no bearing on national politics, this is strictly a state matter,” Chin said.

“This is a unique thing in relation to Perak politics. It will have no bearing on federal politics or outside Perak.”

Despite Umno being enemies with DAP, Chin said both parties were willing to work together to defeat a common enemy – in this case the Bersatu-led Perak government.

“Umno working with DAP, this is a one-off because they want to pull down the Bersatu government. Umno will never work with DAP because their ideologies are so different.

“Umno and DAP will not get together in the next election to form a coalition,” he said.

Ilham Centre’s executive director Mohamad Hisommudin Bakar said the Perikatan Nasional federal government needs to resolve the Perak issue soon or it could be facing problems if there is a spill-over effect.

“The PN government can remain in power if there is cooperation. If PAS and Bersatu reject a Umno MB, it will lead to a political crisis that might spill over to federal,” he said.

Hisommudin said PN can salvage the situation as Umno only wants the top job but doesn’t want to topple the state government.

“The challenge for PN, which has Bersatu and PAS, is to negotiate with BN to solve the Perak problem.

Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan told the party’s Perak chapter to keep the PN government rule in the state intact despite their dislike of Faizal.

PAS also released a statement saying the Islamist party won’t be involved in efforts to form a new Perak government.

Chin, however, downplayed PAS’ refusal and said it still might form a government when push comes to shove.

“The more important thing is what PAS will do, they are split down the middle. But whatever noise PAS is making now, they still will be a part of the next state government,” he said.

If PAS pulls out, Umno will need to find new bedfellows and this will include linking up with PH parties, like DAP, which has 16 seats in Perak.

Hisommudin said this might be the way forward for Perak politics if Umno decides to end the political cooperation with PN at the state level.

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat also agrees with the theory, adding that post-election coalitions are the future and the time is up for permanent political party coalitions.

“After Sabah and now Perak, permanent coalitions are over. Post-election coalitions actually provide more incentives for parties to moderate antagonism between them, as enemies today may be partners tomorrow,” Wong said.

Both Umno and DAP stand to benefit from this arrangement, which can be achieved through a confidence-and-supply agreement (CSA), said Wong.

“The simplest way out for both Umno and DAP is to have a CSA with power-sharing through legislative reforms and equal-constituency funding. They would have less explanation to their ground of the rapprochement.

“For PH, it will get to influence government policies through select committees that can operate outside the two-week assembly sitting and also enjoy equal funding to provide constituency services. It is basically power-sharing through the state assembly instead of the exco.

“For Umno, one-third of its assemblymen can enjoy the perks and power of exco positions,” Wong added.

This cooperation might extend to other states and can even influence national politics in the long run where there might be a DAP-Umno partnership someday, said Wong.

“If this works out, PN would be in great trouble at the federal level. Umno and PH may reach a deal on a new government without DAP with an extensive CSA in exchange for DAP’s support.

“Divisions in next week’s budget meeting would be very interesting events to watch,” Wong added.

There are talks of DAP lending support to either Umno or Bersatu to form the federal government but staying out of it in exchange for equal constituency allocations.

Hisommudin agrees with Wong and said if PH wants to balance the coalition out, it should accept a Malay party and Umno would be most ideal.

“If PH wants to break the monopoly (of the Malay parties), they should accept Umno. If they do not break the bond, they will face problems in the next elections as they do not have a Malay face.

“It can be a loose cooperation with the common enemy being Bersatu, PAS or even PN.” – December 5, 2020.