PRIME Minister Muhyiddin Yassin will not call for elections any time in the next six months as he will try to maximise his tenure despite stating openly that he wants snap polls after the Covid-19 pandemic abates, said analysts.

They also feel the nation is not ready for an election amid the pandemic as it faces health concerns and a weak economy, which Putrajaya will have to navigate through first.

After last week’s passing of the Perikatan Nasional government’s RM332.5 billion budget, Muhyiddin’s position was solidified despite the Bersatu president announcing his intentions of wanting to call for snap elections after the pandemic.

Tasmania University’s Asian Studies professor James Chin said Muhyiddin is throwing a red herring by saying that elections will be called soon, adding it might be in 2022.

“I would not take what Muhyiddin said seriously. Normally, you would not tell people when you want to call a general election. This will give time for the opposition to plan.

“It (the elections) can be anytime between next year and 2023,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Chin said even if the government has secured the Covid-19 vaccine by January, it will probably take up to at least a year for the vaccine to be available for the whole country.

“(Muhyiddin is) unlikely to call for a general election until the majority of the population is vaccinated. It will take up to six or eight months, probably even a year.

“People think it’s so simple to vaccinate the entire population, it is not so easy. On top of getting the stock, imagine how are you going to vaccinate the interiors of Sabah, Sarawak and people living in the jungles of Peninsular Malaysia,” he said.

Universiti Malaya socio-cultural associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi agrees and said Putrajaya should focus its efforts on combating the virus first instead of elections.

He said after Budget 2021 was passed at a policy stage, the Muhyiddin government should allocate funds to vaccinate people instead of channelling them towards the polls.

“The vaccination process is a long one, it will take up to three years for things to normalise. In the meantime, people will be losing jobs and it is up to the government to push out funds. The finance needs to go here instead of general elections,” Awang Azman said.

Muhyiddin is somewhat in a stable position after reconciling with Umno last week and passing the budget at the expense of the opposition, so he will not be tempted to call for elections soon, he said.

“He is now safe from a vote of no confidence. It is ironic his slim majority for the budget was saved by the inaction of Pakatan Harapan (PH).

“The longer he stays in power, the firmer his grip on the country will be,” the analyst said.

March to June

However, Awang Azman said, if Muhyiddin insists on calling for elections amid the Covid-19 pandemic, it will be between March and June.

“The opportune window for national elections would be March next year if he insists on calling for snap polls. He would have gathered his strength and sorted his machinery by then,” he said.

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun agrees with the time frame as Malaysia needs time to bring down the number of daily Covid-19 cases and will want to avoid a repeat of the Sabah elections.

“March to June, more likely towards June if you do not want to resuscitate the pandemic. We do not want a sort of Sabah situation to repeat itself,” he said.

Ilham Centre’s executive director Hisommudin Bakar said this will give Muhyiddin ample time to strategise and have concessions within his PN allies, which include Umno.

“That is the best strategy, they need a new mandate and the elections are the best way forward. This also gives time for PN parties to prepare themselves.

“He announced a presidential council which will discuss all issues, including seat negotiations,” he said.

Muhyiddin said at the Bersatu annual general assembly that his party is ready for elections but had to shelve the plans due to the Covid-19 pandemic. He also suggested a new presidential council between PN parties to prepare for the polls.

Hisommudin added that it will be crucial for Muhyiddin to navigate the seat negotiations as three-cornered fights between Umno, PAS and Bersatu would be detrimental.

“This depends on the reaction of Umno. The main topic of discussion will be the Umno seats. Bersatu is a new component in this equation. They would want to avoid three-cornered fights at all costs,” he said.

If the coalition manages to sort itself out, PN will retain government with a handsome margin as the opposition is in tatters, said Hisommudin.

“If Muafakat Nasional and PN combine, PH will be destroyed. PH now has a big problem, as there is no pure Malay party in the coalition. Amanah is far from being that.”

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat said the budget vote was detrimental to the PH support base and some of them are beginning to abandon ship.

“The opposition’s grassroots are understandably let down by Anwar’s unfulfilled promise and haphazard leadership. But what will decide the opposition splits or not, is its direction. If the opposition can find a direction, whether by Anwar or another leader, the ground would close rank.

“If the opposition keeps banking on Umno parliamentarians crossing over, then it is only a matter of time that the base would revolt against their leadership, not just Anwar,” he said.

Hisommudin said PH is so focused on having Anwar taking over power that they have not even prepared for the eventuality of snap polls.

“PH is still in the mood of taking over by statutory declarations. They have not readied themselves for elections. All the parties are not ready.

“If they are not ready by March, they will lose badly in elections. They would not even retain most seats they won previously,” he said.

On Thursday, the supply bill was passed at the policy stage by voice vote, after an insufficient number of MPs stood up to request a division vote, where ballots are individually counted.

Several MPs said they received last-minute instructions from Anwar to stand down during the division vote request. – November 30, 2020.