SARAWAK DAP’S early concession it would not win the next state elections might not have raised many eyebrows, but Chong Chieng Jen’s claim the party wants to be the kingmaker has. 

The state party chief said the “new norm” in Malaysian politics now is no longer winning 50% of seats to be in power. 

He said DAP needs to only win between 15 and 20 seats in the next state elections for it to play kingmaker and be in the government. 

Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) is expected to call elections in the first quarter of next year, with the current mandate expiring in June. 

Chong pointed to the kingmaker position Parti Bersatu Sabah was in in the just-concluded Sabah elections, where despite only winning seven seats, it played a deciding role on whether Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) or Warisan Plus could form the government.

Out of 73 seats, BN and PN won 31, while Warisan Plus secured 32.

He also pointed to GPS’ role in shoring up Muhyiddin Yassin as prime minister.

GPS has only 18 seats in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat. 

Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu information chief Idris Buang is one sceptic of DAP’s new target, which the Stampin MP made a week ago at the inaugural annual general meeting of the party’s two new branches in Kuching. 

Idris is also wondering which parties DAP plan to be kingmaker with, whether it is GPS, Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) – a splinter of their nemesis Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) – or the plethora of small, independence-seeking parties.

Chong said in his address at the meeting the next state elections could likely see three blocs – GPS, PSB and Pakatan Harapan. He is also Sarawak PH chairman. 

Idris was quick to dismiss DAP’s incompatibility to play kingmaker for GPS. The Muara Tuang assemblyman said for a party to be kingmaker, it needs to have “very basic character and principles” that are easily acceptable and compatible with any party. 

He said Sarawak DAP has many attributes rejected by many parties in the state, including GPS.

This, Idris said, was clearly evident in the 22 months they were in power as part of the PH federal government. 

“They did not fight for Sarawak’s interest when the federal government cancelled, suspended and shelved projects for the state.”

Idris said DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng’s comments last year that Sarawak, under GPS, could go bankrupt in three years is another example of DAP’s incompatibility “in the eyes of most Sarawak parties”.

“A kingmaker needs to have the right chemistry to jive with others. DAP may not be able to play that role as their political culture is too ingrained with the peninsula kind of opposition politics.” 

Political analyst Assoc Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said he doubts if DAP could ever be kingmaker. 

“It is not easy to win 15 to 20 seats. It is a big ask. For DAP to even win 15 seats, that’s already difficult,” he said.

Awang Azman said the entry of PSB will also mean Chinese-majority urban seats would no longer be straight fights for DAP, unlike past elections.

“I am sure PSB will take votes away from DAP.”

Awang Azman said there are also other critical factors to consider, like who DAP’s candidates are and the issues they raise in the elections. 

“The same can be said of the candidates GPS and PSB will field in their assault of DAP’s strongholds.”

The best electoral result Sarawak DAP had was in the 2011 state elections, where they doubled the six seats they had prior to the dissolution of the state assembly. 

However, in the 2016 polls, they were pegged back by then chief minister Adenan Satem’s campaign of winning Sarawak’s eroded MA63 rights from Putrajaya.

DAP, on its anti-corruption and anti-kleptocracy campaign, lost five seats – Batu Kawah, Repok, Meradong, Dudong and Piasau – all to SUPP or BN direct candidates. 

Awang Azman also shared the same view with Idris that Chong’s performance as a deputy minister and DAP’s failure to keep to their 2018 general election promises could go against them. 

“Definitely the performance (as deputy domestic trade and consumer affairs minister) in the short-lived PH government could be a major factor in the Chinese voters’ mind. 

Chong promised, among others, that Sarawak “need not beg” for the oil royalty to be increased to 20%, from the 5% it is getting now, when PH comes to power. 

But Idris said there was not even a sound when then prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad refused the increase, saying the 20% could drive Petronas to bankruptcy. 

University of Tasmania’s Asia watcher Prof James Chin dismissed Chong’s assertion of the “new norm” in Malaysian politics and the kingmaker role in Sarawak politics.

“The trend in Sarawak is different from West Malaysia. It is too early to predict. 

“In fact, it’s silly to even predict. You don’t know if there is going to be an opposition alliance.” 

Chin said while Sarawak PH leaders are still talking to “other opposition parties”, he believed DAP leaders find some leaders of those parties difficult to deal with. 

He pointed to former Sarawak PKR leader and Ba Kelalan assemblyman Baru Bian, who is now with PSB. 

“There is still a lot of bitterness,” Chin said, referring to Baru’s role in February’s political crisis, which led to the collapse of the PH government. – October 4, 2020.