THE Warisan Plus coalition has an edge over its rivals Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) as the official campaign period winds down in the Sabah election, said a think-tank.

Ilham Centre, however, said its survey revealed that the two main coalitions still have a fair chance of victory tomorrow due to the complexity of sentiments among Sabah’s 1.2 million voters.

Warisan Plus is a “clear winner” in 23 seats while in 14 seats being hotly contested, voter sentiments are trending towards the incumbent coalition, Ilham Centre said.

“The Sabah election is still an open game for GRS and Warisan Plus until the polls close at 5.30pm tomorrow,” said Ilham Centre’s Research Panel in an executive summary.

“Which side is successful in giving voters the final nudge in the last seconds of the campaign period could ensure victory for their side.”  

The Sabah polls is being fought by incumbent coalition Warisan Plus and GRS, which comprises Sabah Barisan Nasional, Perikatan Nasional and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS).

About half a dozen smaller Sabah-based parties, such as Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS), the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the United Sabah National Organisation (USNO), and 56 independent candidates have also thrown in their hats into the ring.

A coalition must control 37 out of 73 seats to form the state government.

A separate study by another Sabah-based think tank, Society for Empowerment and Economic Development (SEEDS), found GRS is 2.7% ahead of Warisan Plus in the popularity stakes.

SEEDS chairman Dr Arnold Puyok said 43.4% of respondents in a poll picked GRS compared with 40.7% for Warisan Plus. The remaining 15.9% picked other parties, he said.

The think-tank based its assessment on focus group interviews, surveys and observations among voters in all 73 constituencies going to the polls tomorrow.

Its study from September 8 to yesterday found that of the 73, contests in 31 seats will be the deciding factor in who wins the election.

This is similar to The Malaysian Insight’s own analysis that found there are 33 hotly contested seats.

Of Ilham’s 42 safe seats, 23 can be “clearly won by Warisan Plus” while 19 are GRS strongholds.

Each coalition, along with smaller parties and independents, have an equal chance of winning the 31 hot seats.

In those hot seats, 14 are trending towards Warisan Plus while GRS has a possibility of winning five.

The contests and sentiments in 12 hot seats make them to hard to predict, the think-tank added.

Warisan Plus would secure a simple majority if it garners the 23 seats where it is a clear winner and win the 14 seats where voters are inclined towards it. – September 25, 2020.