VICTORY in the Sabah elections will be determined by 33 out of 73 seats hotly contested by the two main rival coalitions and a clutch of smaller parties.

Of that 33, 13 are new seats created during the 2018 electoral boundary re-delineation exercise and not included in the 14th general election.

The remaining 20 were won by margins of fewer than 2,000 votes in GE14, analysts and politicians told The Malaysian Insight.  

Of the 20, seven are on the west coast, seven in its interior and six on the east coast.

Of the 73 seats, 40 are considered “safe” as they were won with comfortable majorities of more than 2,000 votes by either the Warisan Plus incumbent coalition or parties now in the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) pact.

GRS is made up of parties in Sabah Barisan Nasional (Sabah BN), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Parti Bersatu Sabah.

A coalition needs to win at least 37 seats to have a simple majority in the legislature and form the state government.

Pollster Hisomuddin Bakar said victory in the 33 seats will be determined by a combination of factors, including the candidate’s stature and party machinery.

Another critical factor is the number of parties and candidates contesting a seat as this would split the votes, said Hisomuddin of Ilham Centre. 

“In the 20 seats won narrowly in GE14, there are so many parties and it is hard to predict how the smaller parties will steal votes that would have gone to the bigger coalitions,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Before GE14, the conventional wisdom was that an unpopular incumbent could still win if he faced two opposition parties, as the latter two would split the anti-establishment vote.  

But in Sabah, there are seats, such as Liawan in the Keningau area, where the incumbent and the opposition parties are being threatened by popular independent candidates with strong ties to these parties.

There is also the problem of GRS parties fielding candidates against each other in at least 16 seats.

“This makes the Sabah elections very difficult to predict because there are so many factors that can affect the vote,” said political scientist Dr Mazlan Ali who is also studying the elections.

Except for a handful of 15 urban seats, the politics in Sabah’s rural seats is largely affected by issues of development and ethnicity, said Mazlan.  

“Because many voters are still poor, a candidate’s ability or his track record in helping villagers is very important, more important than the party he belongs to,” said Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia. 

Safe, unsafe territory

The 73 seats are divided into 29 on the west coast, 18 in the interior and 26 on the east coast.

In GE14, GRS parties won most of their seats on the west coast and the interior while Warisan Plus’ stronghold is in the urban areas around Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan, and on the east coast.  

GRS safe seats include Sulaman, won by 7,774 votes, Tandek (4,592), Sook (4,485), Karanaan (3,782) and Lumadan (2,935).

Warisan Plus is secure in Kapayan, won by 13,250, Luyang (12,408), Sri (9,383), Likas (7,902) and Bugaya (7,851).

Out of the 10 highest majorities, only one belongs to GRS – Sulaman. The other nine high-majority margin seats were won by Warisan Plus.

The 20 marginal seats include Banggi, Bongawan, Petagas, Kiulu, Melalap, Kemabong, Sugut, Gum Gum, Kunak and Balung.

Some of the 40 seats won by comfortable margins have been rendered unsafe due to the multi-cornered contests and rivalry among GRS parties.

Despite being in an official partnership, Sabah BN chairman Bung Moktar Radin has not been shy about his dislike for PN, led by Bersatu.

Sabah Bersatu was formed last year by Sabah Umno defectors who abandoned the Malay nationalist party after it lost power in GE14.

In a widely circulated video, Bung said he does not care if PN loses the 29 seats it is contesting.  

A GRS source said this has slowed down campaigning in seats where both PN and Sabah BN are contesting, as each side is not helping the other to canvass for votes.

The rivalry has also made seats such as Sulaman, which Sabah Bersatu chief Hajiji Mohd Noor is defending, unsafe as Umno members there may not turn out to vote for him, said the source. 

In a state where names and families are influential, the presence of former chief ministers and ministers not aligned with GRS or Warisan Plus will also rock the vote.

These scenarios include Bongawan, where Parti Cinta Sabah’s Anifah Aman is contesting, Inanam (contested by Liberal Democratic Party president Chong Kah Kiat) and Pintasan (United Sabah National Organisation’s Pandikar Amin Mulia).  

“In these contests, the candidate and his reputation matter a lot more than his party,” Hisomuddin added. – September 25, 2020.