JOHOR lawmaker Osman Sapian is getting a free pass despite disciplinary issues because his party, Bersatu, is unprepared for possible state elections, said analysts.

The possibility of state elections is high, they said, given that if the ruling Perikatan Nasional pact loses one assemblyman, it would trigger a hung legislature.

Bersatu said yesterday it is carrying out an internal investigation against the former Johor menteri besar, who was recently spotted attending two Pejuang events.

Secretary-general Hamzah Zainuddin said it will act according to the party constitution against the Kempas assemblyman, who campaigned with Pejuang during the Slim by-election.

If Osman is sacked from Bersatu, Johor PN will lose its one-seat majority in the Dewan Negeri, said Universiti Malaya’s Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

“There is also the fear that more Bersatu assemblymen would support Osman if he is sacked from the party,” said Awang Azman. 

At present, PN has 29 out of the assembly’s 56 seats.

If Osman is sacked and moves to support the opposition Pakatan Harapan, each coalition will be tied at 28 seats.

A hung state assembly will mean that enactments, such as the 2021 budget, won’t be passed, said political scientist Dr Mazlan Ali.

In the event of a hung legislature, the sultan of Johor will likely dissolve the assembly to break the impasse to ensure that Johor folk can pick a more stable government, said Mazlan of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM).

“The problem is that Bersatu is not prepared to go into an election. It is dependent on Umno to accept and work with it in Muafakat Nasional,” said Mazlan.

“At even the national level, Bersatu is still trying to rebuild its house and it is already contesting in the Sabah elections. So, it wants to deal with all these issues first before thinking of going into a Johor election.”       

Like Putrajaya, PH in Johor fell in March after Bersatu abandoned it to form PN with Umno and PAS.

The largest party in Johor PN is Umno with 17 seats while Bersatu has nine after Pemanis assemblyman Dr Chong Fat Full left PKR to join it.

Rounding out the PN government is MIC with two seats while PAS has one. PH is now left with 14 seats held by DAP, Amanah (9) and PKR (3).

Osman spoke at a rally in the Slim by-election organised by Pejuang, a party opposed to PN.

Bersatu members are urging action against Osman because the party has in the past sacked lawmakers and members who supported Pejuang and its leaders, such as Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Pejuang was formed in August by former Bersatu leaders and members who opposed its alliance with Umno.

Mazlan, who has surveyed Johor voter sentiment last year, said Umno is the only party that is confident of winning an election in that state.   

Yet, Johor Umno’s leaders and members are the most hostile towards Bersatu, a party many consider its splinter and the reason it lost the 14th general election.

Johor Umno grassroots members said Bersatu lacks an effective election machinery in many parts of the state and would be dependent on Umno

“So, Osman is a real headache for the party president (Muhyiddin Yassin). If Muhyiddin does not take action against Osman, he will seem weak.

“But if he takes action against Osman and the latter supports Pakatan, he will get a hung assembly and a possible election he is not ready for.” – September 9, 2020.