ALTHOUGH Bersatu can boast of having a prime minister in its fold and being the second largest bloc in Perikatan Nasional with 32 MPs, only seven of them won their seats under the party banner.

The remaining 25 MPs are defectors from Umno and PKR.

In the 2018 general election, Bersatu won 12 out of the 52 seats it contested by riding on the reputation of its charismatic leader Dr Mahathir Mohamad, a strong anti-Barisan Nasional (BN) wave and the backing of most of the non-Malay voters.

Since then, the party has sacked Dr Mahathir (Langkawi) and four other MPs, including its deputy president Mukhriz Mahathir (Jerlun) and youth chief Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman (Muar).

The other two are former education minister Maszlee Malik (Simpang Renggam) and Amirudin Hamzah (Kubang Pasu).

The seven remaining Bersatu seats are Tambun, Sg Besar, Titiwangsa, Kuala Pilah, Alor Gajah, Pagoh and Sri Gading.

Of the seven, Pagoh looks the strongest on paper as incumbent and Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has held it for eight terms. His first term was from 1978 to 1986 and then from 1995 to now.

Apart from Dr Mahathir, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Anwar Ibrahim, Muhyiddin is one of few lawmakers to have won a traditional Umno seat after quitting the party.

But the 2018 victory did not come easy for Muhyiddin.

Even with seven previous terms in Pagoh, Muhyiddin’s winning margin dropped by 11 points to 55.2% in the 2018 election after he left Umno.

This is significant as despite the anti-BN wave and Muhyiddin’s history with Pagoh, 38.9% (16,631 votes) of the votes still went to Umno candidate Ismail Mohamed, indicating an almost 40% base support for Umno in Pagoh.

With non-Malay support expected to decline sharply following February’s political turmoil, which Muhyiddin played a big role in, the 73-year-old will need to secure Umno’s backing if he wants to win a ninth term.

This is a similar trend played out in the other six Bersatu seats.

Unlike the Umno MPs that defected to Bersatu, the original Bersatu seats have a significantly lower number of Malay voters. While the Umno defector MPs had on average 85% Malay voters, Bersatu’s seven only has 68%.

With non-Malay support expected to fall drastically, this means the seven will have to rely heavily on Umno and PAS support to retain their seats.

While Muhyiddin’s winning margin of 16.2% was the highest, others had merely scraped through with an average winning margin of 7.47%.

The second highest winning margin is Alor Gajah with 12.07%, but Mohd Redzuan Md Yusof will have to contend with 39% of non-Malay voters.

Prior to his win in 2018, Alor Gajah was held by MCA (2004-2018) and Redzuan will have to see if MCA is willing to step aside.

Seats won on BN-PAS three-cornered strategy

The non-Malay factor aside, Bersatu’s biggest problem is attempting to convince BNl to give up the seats it can win on its own.

Of the seven Bersatu original seats, five were won as a result of the failed three-cornered strategy used by BN and PAS.

In Sg Besar, for instance, Muslimin Yahaya only managed to pick up 42.1% of the votes after Umno and PAS cancelled each other out.

Even then, Muslimin only managed to win by 1.74% or 714 votes against Umno’s Budiman Mohd Zohdi and PAS’ Mohamed Salleh Husin.

The same happened in Kuala Pilah as Eddin Syazlee Shith only pipped Umno’s Hasan Malek by 200 votes after PAS’ Rafiei Mustapha pulled away 4,347 votes.

Similarly in Titiwangsa, where former second finance minister Johari Abdul Ghani would have easily beaten Rina Harun if not for the failed strategy.

The other seats won by less than 50% of the vote were Tambun and Sri Gading.

Had BN and PAS used the same straight-fight strategy it employed in the 2019 by-elections in Semenyih and Cameron Highlands, it would have retained these seats easily in 2018.

All seven Bersatu seats have at least a 30% non-Malay component. All these seats fell due to the three-cornered strategy.

For Bersatu to retain these seats, it will have to depend on the full backing of BN and PAS.

In contrast, BN can win these seats without Bersatu as the non-Malay support for Pakatan Harapan could be split too.

Again, it depends if BN, or Umno in particular, is willing to give up the chance to reclaim at least six out of the seven Bersatu seats. – July 14, 2020.