UMNO is now in a dilemma on how it should cooperate with Bersatu in the next general election, said analysts, as party leaders openly disagree on Bersatu’s Muhyiddin Yassin for prime minister.

There are those in Umno who think Bersatu will be of little help in an election as the splinter party has no solid grassroots support.

On the other hand, Muhyiddin as the prime minister candidate is the safest choice at the moment, based on his current performance in navigating the country through the Covid-19 pandemic.

Political analyst Mazlan Ali said Umno is split over the matter, and the split is along the lines of who in the party were made political appointees to government-linked companies and other agencies under Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) government.

One line of thinking within Umno is that Bersatu should not be given too many seats to contest in an election because of its weak grassroots support, said Mazlan.

“The other view is that Umno has benefited from the government appointments dished out by Muhyiddin. They see that there is some good having Muhyiddin at the helm.

“So Umno is in a dilemma,” said the Universiti Teknologi Mara (UTM) senior lecturer.

Those who think of Bersatu as a weak ally cite Umno and PAS’ long history and combined membership of nearly five million, plus their network in almost all parts of Malaysia except Sarawak. Umno and PAS are formal allies under the Muafakat Nasional pact.

The issue of a prime minister candidate for Umno, PAS and Bersatu arose after PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang and Umno Supreme Council member Annuar Musa, who is also Barisan Nasional (BN) secretary-general, last week endorsed Muhyiddin as prime minister candidate for the 15th general election.

Their statements marked the first time Muafakat Nasional leaders have stated who they want for the post in GE15, given the circumstances whereby the prime minister comes from Bersatu but Umno and PAS are much larger and stronger parties, with more MPs in Parliament. 

For Umno, the party which has always held the prime minister’s post since independence, the current situation leaves it with no suitable candidate as several of its top leaders are embroiled in corruption trials.

Hadi and Annuar’s declaration of support for Muhyiddin was made the day after all heads of PN government parties met with Muhyiddin to declare support for his government and for him as prime minister. 

However, it should also be noted that Hadi and Annuar’s support was made in individual statements and is not part of any formal statement by Muafakat Nasional. 

Since then, various Umno leaders have cautioned against the rush to nominate Muhyiddin as prime minister candidate.

To Mazlan, the claims of support for Muhyiddin as prime minister candidate in GE15 are just a show.

“It’s a way for PN to show they are ready for an election. The fact remains that Umno is the dominant party, and it won’t accept a splinter party like Bersatu.”

Mazlan also said Bersatu needs Umno more than the latter does the former, especially to form the federal government.

“Bersatu needs Umno more. Without Umno, Muhyiddin cannot form a government.”

Ilham Centre’s chief researcher Mohd Yusri Ibrahim sees Umno’s support for Muhyiddin as temporary.

Their cooperation will be tested when the time comes to divide seats among them to contest in a general election.

“A formal pact with Bersatu will mean Umno has to give up some seats and get unsatisfactory returns (because of Bersatu’s weak grassroots support). 

“Likewise with PAS, which has nearly 30% of the support of the Malay-Muslim community. It is more beneficial for Umno to share seats with PAS.”

Umno’s dilemma

This may lead to Bersatu seeking opportunities and alliances with other parties, including those from Pakatan Harapan (PH) which it abandoned in late February to form PN with BN, PAS, PKR defectors and Gabungan Parti Sarawak.

This is where Umno’s dilemma lies, Yusri said, because should Muhyiddin manage to convince those he betrayed and form a new coalition with them, PN would collapse. 

Umno also has to deal with the current sentiment that Muhyiddin is popular as prime minister because of his handling of Covid-19.

To temper Hadi and Annuar’s endorsement of Muhyiddin, other voices within Umno are calling for the grassroots and Supreme Council to first approve of the nomination, as Supreme Council member Puad Zakarshi said.

Umno vice-president Mohamed Khalid Nordin has also said Umno should put up its own candidate for prime minister and be prepared for any possibility.

Party veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah’s view, meanwhile, is that Umno’s support for Muhyiddin is just to maintain the stability of the current government and the party will not endorse Muhyiddin as prime minister candidate when elections come.

If Umno needs to rely on Muhyiddin as their safest option for prime minister in order to retain federal power, seat negotiations will still be a problem.

Another Supreme Council member, Ahmad Shabery Cheek, made cryptic remarks on Facebook in a post about pilots who defected in the middle of a war by landing their planes in a third country.

“Malaysian politics also has a lot of stories about defectors. You can keep the YB who defected, but give back the seat held by the party that won in the last election,” he wrote, in an apparent reference to the MPs Bersatu has gained through defections from other parties, including Umno.

Shabery later told The Malaysian Insight that while there is no law against party hopping, the “right” to contest a seat is viewed as belonging to the party and not to an individual.

“People vote for an elected representative’s party. If he changes party, the seat becomes the right of the party. This is the basis on which to decide seat allocations,” he said. – July 6, 2020.