AMIRUDDIN Hamzah’s departure from PAS to join Bersatu will not encourage other leaders from the Islamist party to follow suit they are still not convinced with Amanah and are uncomfortable with the politics of Bersatu, analysts said.

They said Amiruddin, who is Kedah opposition leader, alone cannot change the minds of the PAS members in the northern state.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommuddin Bakar said PAS members were afraid of getting the attention of their party members if they followed Amiruddin.

“Many PAS members who support Pakatan Harapan and PAS splinter party Amanah, are still with the Islamist party, which now has its own coalition called Gagasan Sejahtera.

“They are not convinced with Amanah and are uncomfortable with the politics of Bersatu,” Hisommuddin said.

Amiruddin, the Anak Bukit assemblyman, hoped that his decision to leave PAS for Bersatu would open the eyes of PAS members and supporters that they cannot go it alone in the next general election.

But analysts argue that much more is needed to persuade PAS members to ditch the party.

Political writer Mohd Sayuti Omar, who wrote “Kejatuhan Kerajaan PAS Kedah” (The Fall of the Kedah PAS Government) looks at Amiruddin’s entry into Bersatu from a different perspective.

He said by joining Bersatu instead of Amanah, like many of the former PAS progressive leaders, Amiruddin showed the “greatness” of Kedah politics.

“Kedah politicians have class. Amiruddin is close to Amanah but he joined Bersatu, which now needs leaders like him to help Mukhriz,” he said, referring to Bersatu deputy president Mukhriz Mahathir, who was formerly Kedah menteri besar.

“Amanah already has many leaders,” Sayuti said.

He said Amiruddin’s exit from PAS would strengthen PH because he was a known personality, as state opposition leader.

However, Sayuti did not want to speculate if this move could see PAS grassroots members in Kedah flocking to PH.

“For now it appears as if Kedah PAS is under brown planthopper attack,” he said, referring to a type of insect that attacks padi, which is vastly planted in Kedah, Malaysia’s biggest rice grower.

For Amanah leaders in Kedah, Amiruddin’s entry to Bersatu was well-received, even though he did not join the PAS splinter party.

Its state chief, Dr Ismail Salleh said he spoke with Amiruddin for two hours after the latter met Kedah PAS commissioner Dr Ahmad Fakhrudin Sheikh Fakhrurazi last Friday.

“Amiruddin went to see the commissioner at 6pm. At 8pm, he was with me and we had a long talk. We agreed that he should join Bersatu,” said Ismail, who was also a former Kedah state government executive councillor.

He said support for PH in Kedah was from the Malays, because component party Bersatu had big personalities like former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his son Mukhriz.

“But Bersatu does not have enough mid-level leaders who can be good election candidates. 

“So, when Amiruddin made his decision, I was among the earliest to support him for the sake of strengthening PH in Kedah,” Ismail told The Malaysian Insight.

PAS leaders, meanwhile, have continued to tell its grassroots members that the party would emerge victorious in three-cornered fights against Barisan Nasional and PH in Malay-majority seats.

A former PAS division chief said this confidence was born of the results of studies, surveys and estimations the party carried out.

“In Kedah, PAS predicts that Bersatu will get 30% of Umno’s voters while Amanah will only attract 5% of PAS voters,” said the man, who was previously an election candidate.

Based on this assumption, PAS believed it could win Kedah in the coming polls, he said.

“PAS also believes it can take 40 parliamentary seats,” the former division leader said.

He used the Padang Terap parliamentary seat results from the 2013 general election to illustrate his point. 

The seat was taken by BN’s candidate with 20, 654 votes, while PAS candidate Nasir Zakaria won 16,212 votes.

If Bersatu took 30% of BN’s votes, it will get some 6,000 votes, leaving BN with about 14,000 votes.

Amanah is estimated to take only 810 votes from PAS, which will still be left with 15,402 – the most votes among all the parties even if Bersatu and Amanah combined their votes.

“If the prediction is accurate, then PAS will really win in Kedah in the coming election,” said the former leader who declined to be named.

The last time PAS was in control of the Kedah government was after the 2008 polls, when the Islamist party won big in the election together with its then allies PKR and DAP.

PAS broke off its political cooperation with DAP in 2015 and PKR this year. – November 29, 2017.