THE tension between Malaysia and Singapore over maritime borders could escalate as Singapore’s leaders are intent on challenging what they see as Putrajaya’s deliberate act of provocation, said analysts.

Both nations have exchanged strongly-worded statements over the past week, with Singapore issuing thinly-veiled threats of the use of force unless Malaysia pulls back its ships from disputed waters.

The row was triggered by Malaysia’s extension of the limits of a southern port in waters off Tuas, a move that Singapore claims encroaches on its territorial sea.

Singapore filed several diplomatic protests against the extension, alleging that between November 24 and December 5, Malaysian government vessels made 14 intrusions into the disputed area.

Putrajaya has maintained that the new lines are within its waters, and said its ships will remain where they are as long as the dispute lasts.

In a particularly ominous statement on December 6, Singapore’s Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan accused Malaysia of “unilaterally and arbitrarily” extending its sea territory in waters off Johor.

“Our security agencies will continue to patrol the area, and respond to unauthorised activities on the ground. They have so far responded with restraint against aggressive actions by the Malaysian Government vessels.

“But Singapore cannot allow our sovereignty to be violated, or new facts on the ground to be created. Therefore, if it becomes necessary, we will not hesitate to take firm actions against intrusions and unauthorised activities in our waters to protect our territory and sovereignty,” he said.

Thinly-veiled threats

While Malaysia has since recalled two of its vessels to leave one still in the disputed waters, Singapore analysts say the row is far from over.

Singaporean political analyst Eugene Tan said the “vigour” in the republic’s response to the challenge to its sovereignty is in part to inspire confidence in the leadership.

“It would be a gross abdication of duty if Singapore did not assertively challenge Malaysian’s provocation,” said Tan, who is also a law professor with Singapore’s Management University (SMU).

“Singaporeans would expect nothing less from their government.”

Since the new Pakatan Harapan government took power in May, it has locked horns with its southern neighbour on more than one occasion.

Soon after taking office, Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad had unilaterally announced the cancellation of the High-Speed Rail (HSR) project with Singapore, followed by the declaration that Putrajaya would seek to raise the price of water it sold to Singapore, which has long been a contentious issue between the neighbours.

In both cases, Singaporeans took to social media to express their anger at Dr Mahathir, but the government had shown considerably more restraint in its official responses.

‘Dr Mahathir trying to provoke Singapore, again’

The unwonted aggression shown by Singapore in the sea territorial dispute has therefore sparked fears of escalation.

“Yes, it seems that it is more aggressive, but part of the reason is because we are talking about an actual infringement of sovereignty, ie vessels in sovereign territorial waters, rather than more abstract issues of the price of water that needs to be negotiated,” said Joseph Liow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies dean.

Liow said Singapore leaders are also responding to the public clamour for a more assertive stance against Dr Mahathir’s perceived provocations.

“Given that it has happened under Dr Mahathir, it comes as no surprise that Singapore believes this is Dr Mahathir trying to provoke Singapore again,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

“It is Dr Mahathir’s style to engage in megaphone diplomacy with Singapore. It always has been the case.”

Liow, who is also professor of comparative and international politics at the Nanyang Technological University, said Dr Mahathir’s actions are also seen as an effort to “re-imprint his mark on bilateral relations, even as a new generation of leadership emerges both sides of the Causeway”.

‘Every potential to escalate”

“It is as much to test the untested PH government leaders – ie, you must learn how to ‘handle’ Singapore – as it is to test the presumed new leadership team of Singapore,” he said, referring to the largely inexperienced Malaysian cabinet, and the crop of new Singaporean leaders set to take over the country in the next general election.

However, Liow is confident that the current tension will de-escalate, citing the more subdued responses recently issued by Malaysia in recent days, including the recall of two of its ships.

“I don’t think it will escalate further. I think Dr Mahathir didn’t count on the robust Singapore response, and probably within his cabinet there are people who would rather focus on more important domestic matters, and who would also prefer to discuss things with their Singaporean counterparts,” he said.

However, Tan from SMU warned that it would be too early to downplay the threat of increased hostilities, saying that he believes that tension between the two countries “has every potential to escalate” as long as Malaysian ships remain in the disputed waters off Johor.

“With each passing day the Malaysian vessel remains in the disputed waters, the imperative grows for the Singapore authorities to take sterner measures to have the intrusions end,” he said.

“It’s a test of wills.” – December 12, 2018.