Umno bukan lagi pemain politik negara, kata penganalisis

Ian McIntyre Dikemas kini 1 tahun yang lalu · Diterbitkan pada 16 Sep 2024 7:00AM · 7 Komen

UMNO mesti akur dengan pengaruh peringkat kebangsaan yang semakin berkurangan selepas mengalami beberapa kekalahan besar dalam pilihan raya sejak 2018, menurut penganalisis politik.

Sama seperti PAS, yang dilihat sebagai kuasa dominan di negeri-negeri majoriti Melayu di utara pantai timur Semenanjung Malaysia, Profesor Wong Chin Huat percaya Umno kini terutamanya parti serantau, dengan pengaruhnya sebahagian besarnya terhad di bahagian selatan negara itu. semenanjung.

“Perhimpunan agung Umno baru-baru ini membincangkan matlamat bercita-cita tinggi, seperti mendapatkan semula majoriti dua pertiga dalam pilihan raya akan datang. Bagaimanapun, mereka terlepas pandang satu isu utama,” kata ahli akademik Universiti Sunway itu.

Wong mencadangkan agar Umno terlebih dahulu mengakui ia telah dikurangkan kepada parti “serantau” berdasarkan keputusan pilihan raya baru-baru ini.

Beliau menegaskan bahawa PAS telah hampir menghapuskan Umno di negeri-negeri utara Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, dan Terengganu, manakala kehadiran parti itu adalah minimum di kubu kuat Pakatan Harapan (PH) Pulau Pinang dan Selangor.

“Umno paling berkuasa hanya di Negeri Sembilan,” katanya.

Wong menekankan bahawa di enam negeri iaitu Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Pulau Pinang, dan Selangor, terdapat gabungan jumlah 75 kerusi Parlimen dan 224 kerusi DUN. Daripada jumlah tersebut, gabungan Barisan Nasional pimpinan Umno tidak mempunyai kerusi parlimen dan hanya lima kerusi DUN (2.23%).

Sebaliknya, Perikatan Nasional (PN), yang dipimpin oleh PAS, memperoleh 48 (64%) kerusi parlimen dan 155 (69.10%) kerusi DUN di negeri-negeri tersebut. Sementara itu, PH memenangi 27 (36%) kerusi parlimen dan 64 (28.57%) kerusi DUN.

“Dengan margin kemenangan yang begitu sempit, ia akan mencabar Umno untuk menarik bakat baharu di negeri-negeri di mana mereka telah kehilangan tempat. Sememangnya, individu yang paling berbakat mungkin menyertai parti dengan peluang yang lebih baik untuk menang,” kata Wong dalam catatan media sosial.

Walaupun Umno beraksi paling teruk di Terengganu, gagal memenangi satu kerusi, Wong menegaskan bahawa prestasi paling lemah parti itu, dari segi bahagian undi, adalah di negeri yang dikuasai PH iaitu Pulau Pinang dan Selangor.

Walaupun memenangi dua kerusi DUN di Pulau Pinang dan Selangor, bahagian undi Umno hanya 5.56% di Pulau Pinang dan 9.18% di Selangor semasa pilihan raya negeri tahun lepas. Ini adalah penurunan daripada 15.19% di Pulau Pinang dan 17.40% di Selangor semasa pilihan raya negeri 2018.

Wong menjelaskan, selain kehilangan sokongan, sistem pilihan raya first-past-the-post (FPTP) semasa di bawah model Westminster memburukkan lagi keadaan, menjadikan pemenang lebih kuat sambil menghukum yang kalah dengan lebih teruk.

Beliau mencadangkan pengagihan kerusi yang lebih seimbang oleh Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya, dengan mewujudkan lebih banyak kerusi dan pengenalan perwakilan berkadar.

Pada masa ini, parti yang kalah di bawah sistem FPTP dikenakan hukuman berat, walaupun mereka mempunyai bahagian undi yang ketara di beberapa negeri. Sebagai contoh, Wong berhujah bahawa Umno mungkin memperoleh lebih banyak kerusi di Terengganu jika terdapat tambahan kerusi, kerana bahagian undinya di sana agak tinggi.

Untuk mengharungi keadaan yang sukar ini, Wong menasihatkan bahawa, sementara menunggu kemungkinan kebangkitan semula, Umno mesti bekerjasama dengan PH sambil turut bersaing dengan mereka. Beliau menyimpulkan bahawa Umno tidak mempunyai pilihan lain selain menggunakan strategi ini untuk survival politik. – 16 September 2024.

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