Umno-PAS pact might spring a surprise in Semenyih by-election

SM Amin SM Amin Updated 5 years ago · Published on 28 Jan 2019 7:00AM · 3 Comments

Barisan Nasional’s informal pact with the Islamist party PAS worked in the Cameron Highlands by-election, resulting in a thumping win for Ramli Mohd Nor. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Hasnoor Hussain, January 28, 2019.

THE Semenyih by-election in March is when Umno will for the first time face directly its splinter party, Bersatu, in an electoral contest since the 14th general election last May and a true test of Barisan Nasional’s informal pact with the Islamist party PAS in wresting the Malay vote.

Boosting its confidence are the results of Saturday’s by-election in Cameron Highlands, analysts and party leaders said, thanks to BN’s bigger majority of 3,238 than the 597 in GE14.

In the by-election, the BN candidate’s majority of votes was helped by some 3,000 votes that had gone to PAS in GE14.

“We need to take a serious look at what happened in Cameron Highlands where Malay voters were clearly swayed by the issues that BN campaigned on.

“We need to understand their sentiments more deeply and take the right action to persuade them,” Bersatu strategist Dr Rais Hussin told The Malaysian Insight.

Although in Semenyih, Bersatu as part of the Pakatan Harapan coalition won the state seat in Selangor by more than 8,000 votes in GE14, this could not be taken for granted after the way Umno and PAS cooperated in Cameron Highlands, he added.

The Bersatu rep won the seat in GE14 by 8,964 votes in a four-cornered fight that included BN, PAS and Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM).

The majority, however, is only 1,998 if votes received by Umno and PAS are combined. PAS took 6,966 votes while the BN candidate from Umno won 14,464 votes.

Selangor PAS chief Sallehin Mukhyi (left) with Selangor BN chief Ismail Sabri after a press conference in Shah Alam on Tuesday announcing their cooperation in the Semenyih by-election on March 2. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Seth Akmal, January 28, 2019.

These PAS votes are now very likely to go to the Umno candidate, as PAS secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan has already said the party won’t contest in Semenyih to give way to Umno.

Semenyih, a state seat within the Hulu Langat federal constituency, has 68% Malay voters and had been an Umno seat since 1959 until PH won it through a Bersatu rep for the first time in last year’s general election.

The seat fell vacant after its assemblyman Bakhtiar Mohd Nor died from a heart attack on January 11.

Selangor Umno secretary Armand Azha Abu Hanifah said the state chapters of both parties have already made early preparations by establishing a joint committee for the by-election.

This is a step further compared with the loose and informal cooperation they had in the Sg Kandis and Seri Setia by-elections last year.

“I can’t say whether Umno will win or lose in Semenyih, but based on the campaign in Cameron Highlands, we already sense the ‘feel-good factor’ at seeing Malay votes stay with BN.

“Semenyih will be unique because the majority are Malays.”

Armand is confident that voters here will support a joint Umno-PAS campaign as people are by now used to seeing the two parties cooperate, following the Sg Kandis and Seri Setia by-elections.

In Cameron Highlands, members of the women’s wing of both Umno and PAS campaigned together, going door-to-door to canvass votes.

Armand also said Semenyih would be a referendum on support for PH, as the government had failed to keep many of their election promises.

“I think the people have had enough of their political games even though they have become the federal government.”

Ilham Centre executive director Mohd Azlan Zainal said the Umno and PAS’ cooperation could see the formation of a stronger opposition bloc.

Barisan Nasional joined forces with PAS in the Cameron Highlands by-election and retained the seat with a larger majority than GE14. – The Malaysian Insight pic by Afif Abd Halim, January 28, 2019.

“The results in Cameron Highlands basically show that the Malays have accepted that the ‘party’ representing their interest is the combined force of Umno and PAS.

“This feeling will carry over to Semenyih which will be a tough fight, coupled with the weak performance of the late assemblyman.”

Azlan said PAS votes could move to BN due to several factors, such as Malay-Muslim sentiments on some of the PH government’s decisions which ignored the race factor, cost of living, unkept promises in the PH manifesto and its current performance.

PH cannot afford to run its campaign in Semenyih by repeating “old” issues, such as kleptocracy by previous BN leaders and the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal, which by now are considered “stale”, Azlan added.

“These issues have no traction compared to the unfulfilled promises in the PH manifesto, such as the pledge to abolish tolls, National Higher Education Fund loans, the cost of living and commodities, and ethno-religious sentiments.

“An Umno-PAS collaboration can spring a surprise in Semenyih. At the very least, they can narrow the winning margin.” – January 28, 2019.

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Comments

  • Yes, it might not be a surprise if the people are still thinking that kleptocracy, racism, and religious extremism are ok.

    Posted 5 years ago by Awang Bilis · Reply

  • Its only the rural Malays.........not the urban an educated Malays.

    Posted 5 years ago by Azis Yusoff · Reply

  • It is PH to loose in Semenyih. The last GE14 winning majority will be insignificant. PAS and Umno full collabration will roughshod all the PH ability to garner more votes. Coupled to the fact that PH is not delivering what the semi urban rakyat needs. That is the family househols economic well being where daily neccessity consumable food stuff pricing are either going up or not even coming down from the previous high apart from all the hype of abolishing GST with SST.The Local Domestic and Wellbeing Entreprenuer Minister Sallahudin Nasution are resting on his ass for far too long in not focusing on his job. He is keen only in polishing up his big boss. Right now in this economic environment it is imperative to have actual work done to monitor the price index of food stuff to stop the incredulous spiralling o pricing in the street market. Do not even see task force actively on the move and apprehend any wrong doings. It is getting worse with festive season and the oil price in yoyo movement ( there is not much of a change in the world oil price from the previous low to the then high ) but unscrupulous retailers and middle man are capitalising on the unstable market environment and keep on having the price either maintained from the previous high or maybe increasing to build up their coffers. What is PH Government action plan --- Nothing substantial. You expect the rakyat to offer the votes to you. Dream on PH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. Actually it is nothing to do with race or religion of the political candiddates as claimed by both political divide that determine the winning. When basic needs are not satisfied no race or religion can relieve the mistrust of hopes, pain , miseries and the extreme anger in being ceated. PH has forgotten their commitment and even after chastised the kelptocratic UmnoBn Government they have taken for granted that they are blessed with blind undying love by the rakyat. If it is unchecked not even the willy cute old Mahatir can salvage the situation and more likely he will be extremely detested if he talks more. It is an established fact that when there is abundance of food on the table and a strong economic wellbeing purchasing power,the country is stable and blissful and even the devious UmnoPAS who can shout till their throat are dry on race and religion will ot even move a hair of anyone to believe and act.

    Posted 5 years ago by Lee Lee · Reply