THE low turnout of Pakatan Harapan’s most ardent supporters, Umno-PAS alliance and anger over plunging commodity prices were among the factors that helped keep Cameron Highlands in Barisan Nasional’s hands.

Political analyst Mohd Azlan Zainal said the racist campaign against PH candidate M. Manogaran, too, drove away undecided rural Malay voters already upset by the ruling pact’s U-turns on its 14th general election promises.

“The results (of the Cameron Highlands by-election) prove that PH still cannot command the support of Malays, and that the support from the community is too little,” said the acting executive director of pollster Ilham Centre.

“Umno-PAS captured the Malay vote, especially from Felda and young voters, due to PH’s failure at dealing with Malay-Muslim issues and resolving bread-and-butter concerns.”

PAS’ move to campaign for BN increased the opposition coalition’s support levels in Malay-majority polling districts in the Jelai state constituency, which is home to Pahang BN chairman and Menteri Besar Wan Rosdy Wan Ismail.

The Islamist party got 3,587 votes in Cameron Highlands in GE14, and in yesterday’s by-election, PAS backers helped widen the victory margin for BN to 3,238 votes, from the 597-vote majority the coalition won the parliamentary seat with in the elections on May 9 last year.

Yet, said one observer, the combined Umno-PAS share of votes in the by-election is the same as the general election’s at 56%, indicating that support for PH has not plummeted as many had predicted.

While support for the ruling pact increased marginally in Jelai’s seven Malay-majority polling districts, it was not enough to offset PH’s mediocre performance in the five Chinese- and five Indian-majority districts.

The only bright spot for PH is that it has increased Orang Asli support, from the average 10% in GE14 to about 30% yesterday, said Merdeka Centre research manager Tan Seng Keat.

There was an increase in votes for PH from the Semai tribe, most of whom live in Jelai, despite BN candidate Ramli Mohd Nor being from the community.

“Since May 9, the PH federal government has lacked focus on policies for rural voters in the east coast and Felda. So, the outcome of the by-election is no surprise.”

‘Marginal increase’

In an early analysis of the parliamentary seat, PH strategist Dr Ong Kian Ming outlined the main targets that the pact must meet for it to have any chance of winning.

Firstly, PH needed to ensure that the turnout of key supporters, namely Chinese and Indians, did not drop below 55%. A look at the 10 polling districts where Chinese and Indian voters form the majority showed that this did not happen.

The five Chinese-majority polling districts of Lembah Bertam, Bandar Ringlet, Kea Farm, Kg Raja and Teringkap registered turnouts of below 50%. The highest was in Kea Farm at 48.85%, while the lowest was in Kg Raja at 16.43%.

It was even worse in the Indian-majority Ladang Boh 1, Ladang Boh 2, Ladang Sg Palas, Ladang Blue Valley and Kg Terla. The highest turnout was in Ladang Sg Palas at 38.1%, and the lowest, Ladang Blue Valley at 4.41%.

In GE14, PH won 76.9% of the votes in the Chinese districts and 61.4% of the votes in the Indian ones, said Ong, of DAP.

Secondly, PH needed to increase its Orang Asli support from 10% to 30% – although this happened, said Tan, it was not enough to cover the deficit due to the poor turnout of Chinese and Indian voters.

The analysts agreed that PH’s lack of Malay support sealed victory for BN.

“Support among Malays (for PH) improved just marginally. In rural districts like Jelai and Felda, PH still lacks the network and relationships. The villagers know only Umno and PAS,” said Tan.

Azlan said the by-election showed a clear protest vote against PH, and increased Malay support for BN.

“In the Felda districts, we saw young voters, who were likely to have voted for PH in the last general election, voting for BN (in the by-election). This shows that they are disgruntled by PH’s backtracking on policies, especially when it comes to Felda.”

If the trend of decreasing Malay support continues, he said, it will create a crisis of confidence in PH, which can threaten its stability in Putrajaya. – January 27, 2019.