A PAS-Umno alliance, whether informal or otherwise, would see Malay-Muslim issues dominate political discourse and could be detrimental to Pakatan Harapan’s efforts at centrist rule in a multiracial country, Malaysian-Chinese political observers say.

Mandarin radio political commentator Koh Kok Wee said the tie-up, which the two Malay parties had been flirting with and appear closer than ever to sealing, could reap both propaganda and practical benefits. The parties made their strongest show of unity yesterday when Umno leaders attended PAS’ annual congress.

For Umno, the tie-up will be a shot in the arm that is sorely needed by the party, which has been aimlessly meandering since its historic loss at the 14th general election, sore. 

But it will also force Pakatan Harapan to continuously address Malay-Muslim issues and this would have an effect on both voters and PH politicians.

However, Political Studies for Change (KPRU) executive director Ooi Heng said PH could benefit, provided it put its house – the federal administration – in order.

“Once the PH government stabilises, some voters who had not supported the coalition before may choose to vote for them this time, so PH’s Malay support could increase to more than one-third of the Malay community,” Ooi said.

Malay support for Pakatan Harapan in GE14 was estimated at 23%, according to an Ilham Centre study, leaving 77% for Umno and PAS.

Ooi said the ruling coalition’s worries about the Malay vote is understandable, but added that they shouldn’t focus too much on it or let it affect their policy-making and decisions concerning other races and religions.

PH will have to fight hard to remain centrist as a government for all Malaysians, as a PAS-Umno pact essentially means a Malay-Muslim opposition against other races who largely supported a change of government in GE14.

Koh said this could be worse than having “Malays in government and Chinese in opposition” - a description of the political landscape when Barisan Nasional was in power, led by Umno, and DAP was the opposition.

Although Chinese party MCA is in the opposition as part of BN, it no longer has any capability to change outcomes, said Koh. 

PAS has upper hand

PAS would have the upper hand in an alliance with Umno, which had showed it was desperate to return to power, Koh noted.

“There is a high chance that Umno’s role in the political arena will be taken up by Bersatu, and Umno does not have the resources to fight Bersatu in the long-term.

“But this does not apply to PAS. Amanah cannot replace PAS so easily; PAS can even force Amanah to compete as a religious party.

“Furthermore, the two PAS state governments (Kelantan and Terengganu) are much more stable  compared with the BN state governments (Perlis and Pahang). PAS is not in a rush to form a pact, and it is waiting for an opportunity to call the shots,” he said.

Koh thinks a formal alliance will be unlikely due to dissatisfaction among party grassroots.

“Even though cooperation will benefit the two parties greatly, they have contradictory stands on too many issues,” he said

Ooi said what was taking place internally in Umno would decide whether the alliance would be an official or an informal one.

He said there were currently two prominent voices in Umno , one being Khairy Jamaluddin, who wished to push the party to the middle, which would mean competing with PH, which was better practised at  centrist politics.

Thus, Wong said, many others in Umno would want to bring the party further to the right and push Malay-Muslims issues to the front. These, he said, would be the members in favour of cooperation with PAS.

“They believe PAS is still stable in the east coast after Umno’s defeat in GE14. And while Umno focuses on racial issues, PAS focuses on religious issues. They complement each other and this might produce better results,” he said.

On the other hand, Chinese media have pointed out that all the political pacts that PAS had joined in the past had ultimately collapsed. These include Semangat 46 in the 1990s, Umno during its early days, and most recently, MCA in the Balakong by-election.

The recent three by-elections in Selangor showed that Umno and PAS were already more or less working together, Ooi said, except that it did not produce the intended results. –  September 16, 2018.