PAKATAN Harapan may be settling into federal power but a recent survey shows it must redouble its efforts to win over Malay voters if it hopes to stay for more than one term.

The survey by think-tank Ilham Centre confirms previous suspicions that PH trails behind Umno and PAS in terms of Malay support.

And whatever support it does have among the community is due mainly to protest votes against Umno, especially the Malay supremacist party’s scandal-ridden former president and prime minister Najib Razak.  

The survey found that 46% of Malay voters in the peninsula supported Umno and the Barisan Nasional it led in the 14th general election.

Coming in second place in terms of Malay support was conservative Islamist party PAS, which garnered 35% of Malay support.

In comparison, PH only managed to get 17% of Malay support.

Umno and BN recorded the highest Malay votes in Malacca, Johor (both 58%), Negri Sembilan (55%), Pahang (52%), Perak (50%), Perlis (48%) and Penang (37%).

PAS received the strongest Malay support in Kelantan, Terengganu (both 51%) and Kedah (40%). It captured Terengganu and strengthened its grip on Kelantan.

PH’s Malay support only outpaced BN and PAS in Selangor and the Kuala Lumpur seats, at 41% in both areas, as compared with BN’s 31% and PAS’ 28%.

PH gained the least Malay support in Terengganu (5%) and Pahang (8%).

Ilham Centre acting executive director Mohd Azlan Zainal said the voting trends clearly showed that Malay support with PH was not solid.

“It was only the wave against Najib was strong during GE14. The old folk were angry with Najib but to tell them to switch party support, it would had been very difficult.

“The younger supporters, they may be with Umno. But they believed Najib had to go.”

About 59% of respondents said they would vote for the same party in the next general election, 24% said they were unsure while 11% said they would change their votes.

“The 11% were protest votes against Najib Razak and BN,” Azlan said.

Returning to BN   

The likelihood of Malay voters switching back to Umno is high, said Azlan, if PH is unable to deliver on its promises or show it can protect Malay-Muslim interests.

The survey showed a majority of respondents, 46%, said party identification was important in determining how they would vote.

In comparison, 26% of respondents said they were swayed by the candidate while 24% said they were driven by current issues.  

Voters were loyal to their parties but they voted in protest, Azlan said. At the next elections, their votes might return to BN.

“PH has to think of how to retain Malay support to keep the government. It may be possible since we don’t see signs of Umno rising up again.

“But a term is a long time. Anything can happen in politics. You never know if Malays decide that both PH and BN can’t be trusted and give their votes to PAS.”

Of the respondents who chose Umno, 38% said it was to ensure the continued protection of Malay-Muslim interests, 18% said because Umno was dominant in BN while 12% said Umno leaders were more courageous in protecting Malay-Muslims.

When it came to PAS, those who supported it did so because of its Islamic policies (33%) while 12% backed the party because they were afraid of the DAP controlling Putrajaya. Another 12% said they supported PAS because PH was not active in their area.

PH won 116 federal seats in the May 9 elections to form the federal government. It also has the support of Sabah’s Warisan, which has eight seats, and Upko that has one federal seat.

BN won only 79 seats, making it the biggest loser in the polls. The former ruling coalition that controlled Malaysia for more than six decades lost 52 seats.

BN’s federal seats dropped further to 54 after it lost its component partners from Sarawak and several Umno MPs, who turned independent. The bulk of the BN seats come from Umno, the lynchpin in the fallen coalition.

Meanwhile, PAS contested on its own as a third bloc and won 18 federal seats, gaining five more this time than in its previous general election outing.

The study involved 1,622 respondents aged above 21. About 16% were between 21 and 29, 30-39 (19%), 40-49 (28%), 50-59 (21%), while only 14% were above 60.

Men made up 51% of respondents.

More than half of the respondents were in the northern states, Selangor and the Federal Territories. A majority live in cities (66%), while the rest are from the suburbs (19%) and rural areas (15%).

Most of the 1,622 respondents are farmers, fishermen or worked in the kampung (21%), businessmen (21%) and government employees (16%). More than half the respondents are in the B40 group (52%) while 31% are in M40 and 17%, T20.

The study was conducted via questionnaires and in-depth interviews from June 1 until July 30. – August 13, 2018.