LOW morale and dimming chances of a Barisan Nasional (BN) revival will in time cost Umno more lawmakers and weaken its ability to bounce back after its historic defeat in the 14th general election, analysts said.

They said Bagan Serai MP Noor Azmi Ghazali’s decision to quit BN reflected the level of morale in its lynchpin party Umno just a week ahead of party polls.

If Umno and BN do not contain the ripples from this episode, it will likely lose more elected representatives and members.

“If they do not do anything, their branches and members will shrink and leave the party,” said the Ilham Centre’s executive director, Hisommudin Bakar.  

“It’s just a matter of whether it happens sooner or later.” 

Noor Azmi had yesterday declared his allegiance to Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Perak Menteri Besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu.

Noor Azmi did not state a reason for leaving Umno but said he would remain an independent MP.  

Noor Azmi became the third elected BN representative in Perak to switch sides after two state assemblymen – Zainol Fadzi Paharudin (Sungai Manik) and Nolee Ashilin Mohammed Radzi (Tualang Sekah) – did so a week after GE14.

His decision came a day after BN component party Gerakan announced it was leaving the coalition and two weeks after BN lost its Sarawak partners.  

His defection also comes at a time when BN could have garnered political capital by criticising the Pakatan Harapan government’s policy missteps and its inability to fulfil its election pledges.

Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) said that Noor Azmi’s decision reflected the low morale within Umno.

“This is despite the fact that the party’s leaders are promising reforms and rejuvenation,” said the political science lecturer.  

“It also shows that Umno members and leaders are more confident in Dr Mahathir than they are in their own leaders,” said Mazlan.

“Many of these members feel that Umno is getting weaker and is unable to rebuild.”  

Umno, which has 53 MPs after Noor Azmi’s resignation, is holding its party’s polls on June 30, and has seen leaders campaigning on promises to rebuild and revive the party.

The defection will make this revival harder for BN, as it grapples with the loss of Gerakan and its four Sarawak BN parties, said Universiti Malaya’s Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

The bleeding in BN also comes at a time when it could have taken advantage of the fact that voters have started to question PH’s ability to deliver on its promises, he said.  

PH had won on an ambitious campaign to reform institutions, stamp out corruption and most importantly for consumers, bring down living costs and increase wages.

It also promised to offer free education at public universities, improve the government healthcare system and bring down highway toll charges.  

But after discovering that the country owed debtors RM1 trillion in borrowings, the administration has been forced to scale back and review its policies.

“In these past two months, we’ve seen PH depend on generating anger towards BN by announcing all these scandals. There’s also the issue of it not being able to fulfil its 100-day pledges.”

These issues could have been used by BN to revive support but the coalition appears to still be on the defensive, said Awang Azman.   

“The effect is that BN members will lose hope in their leaders’ abilities to revive Umno and BN, and they will start thinking of leaving.”– June 25, 2018.