WITH less than 24 hours to go, the outcome of the Sungai Bakap state seat by-election in Penang will largely be determined by outstation voters.

After 14 days of campaigning, the choice is now left in the hands of the 39,279 voters, a good number of whom are either working or living elsewhere, namely in other districts of Penang or the Klang Valley.

Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate Joohari Ariffin has implored every voter to come out and exercise their election rights while Penang PKR vice-chairman A. Kumaseran said he would be providing transportation to ferry the elderly and disabled voters to their respective voting stations tomorrow. 

Joohari is in a straight fight against Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidate, Nibong Tebal PAS vice-chairman Abidin Ismail.

The Sungai Bakap seat fell vacant following the death of its incumbent Nor Zamri Latiff from PAS/Perikatan last May 24 due to inflammation in the stomach.

The message from PH is clear: Come out and vote. 

Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow is hoping for a high turnout rate of some 75%, compared to the recent Kuala Kubu Baru by-election in Selangor that only recorded a 61.5% turnout rate.

A high turnout would help neutralise the hardcore voters which PAS has in the several Malay enclaves in a constituency which borders Kulim-Bandar Baru in Kedah and Bukit Mertajam as well as Batu Kawan in Penang.

For PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli, who is heading the PH campaign machinery, there is a need to be cautious about luring outstation voters, as the young apparently sided with PAS in the state elections in August last year.

But Rafizi is optimistic that Malay anger over the loss of confidence in Umno and its subsequent willingness to work with former nemesis Anwar Ibrahim has dissipated.

“The community knows that whatever they do, the (state) government will not change, so it is best to co-exist with the present one to develop themselves and the nation,” he said.

However, it remains to be seen if this would translate into votes for PH, he added.

PH is relatively comfortable with the Chinese, who form 22% of the voters with Indians at 17%, despite the latter being wooed by former deputy chief minister P. Ramasamy to boycott the by-election because the community had supposedly been marginalised.

The Malays remain the dominant voting bloc, some 59%.

PAS hopes the fence-sitters, who are mostly some 5,000 Umno grassroots members, would remain with them instead of supporting PH.

Abidin said they were confident this group of voters would give them a big surplus.

The late Nor Zamri edged out PKR’s Nurhidayah Che Ros with a majority of 1,563 in the state polls in August.

Muted campaign

The campaign has been largely muted where issues remain transient at best.

Voters were unhappy with water supply interruptions, traffic congestion, and the infestation of flies. They were also concerned with rising living costs, and issues pertaining to housing and education.

In the absence of any major local issues, fake news was bound to happen, and it has come in the form of Anwar accused of being an Israeli agent to claims that the Indian voters would boycott the democratic exercise because they were unhappy with the government.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s political scientist Dr Sivamurugan Pandian reckoned that the green wave momentum, which saw PAS seizing two states - Kedah and Perlis - besides maintaining its supremacy in Kelantan and Terengganu, may still be around.

So, PAS may have a slight edge but depending on the outstation voters and the final push for fence sitters, PH may also have a chance, said Sivamurugan.

Hence, the outcome could be close with a majority of some 1,000 either going to PH or Perikatan.

There are other variables too, such as a win would consolidate the leadership of Chow, who has come under fire of late due to allegations of misgovernance.

The main theme in the by-election has been the rising living costs – and Sungai Bakap has become the symbol of how the ordinary person is majorly struggling against the onslaught of inflation, said local economist Ariffin Osman.

The outcome would depend on whether the Malay ground is forgiving enough to allow PH a clean slate to govern or if bitterness remains and they continue to support Perikatan, who as the opposition has nothing concrete to offer for now, added Ariffin.

It is a tight race – down to the wire, said former PKR leader S. Raveentharan.

In the end, whoever wins just needs to serve the electorate as community leaders become politicians to serve and not to be served, said the lawyer.

Meanwhile, pollster Ilham Center believed the contest was too close to call, saying both candidates had a 50-50 chance to emerge the winner. 

It added that there were three important factors that would determine the outcome of the by-election. They were the turnout rate of Chinese voters, the swing of Umno’s core voters, and the voting trend of the young voters.   

“If PH-BN manages to persuade ethnic Chinese voters to go out to vote, they have the potential to wrest this state assembly from PN if the difference in the turnout percentage of ethnic Malays and Chinese does not exceed 15%.  

“Otherwise, PN will maintain the status quo as the winner of this seat,” it said. – July 5, 2024.