AFTER months of teasing and pussyfooting, Muda has finally severed ties with the Madani government. 

It was a long goodbye to a short relationship that many in Pakatan Harapan both disdained and wanted.  

Muda has taken the irreversible step of standing against its allies, perhaps most unforgivably, against DAP, which mollycoddled and defended the party against its harshest critic, PKR youth.  

Realpolitik is not exactly Muda’s strong point. While many find its idealism refreshing, it was tested – and failed –against the harsh need to compromise and give way, which is Malaysian politics.

Its candidates lost their deposits in all the 14 seats the party in the recent state elections. It was relegated along with PSM and Pejuang to fringe status. 

Why leave PH now then? PH-BN’s convincing win in Pulai and Simpang Jeram shows the people of Johor do want the pact to have a two-thirds majority in parliament

The simple answer is relevance. Muda president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman knows he is having one of his last few moments in the spotlight and that he must make a statement now or risk being lost in the noise. 

The move has won him points among his former enemies but brickbats galore from his former allies, who will likely run against against him and his party in future elections to quell them once and for all. 

The “third force” Muda aims to become has been attempted by many activists, but the reality is that such a force would tend to be seen as a Pakatan supporter or splinter group instead of a viable, separate option. 

The political situation, though relatively more predictable now, remains fluid with neither sides really settled down for the long game. 

The PAS-Bersatu bond is still brittle and while recent overtures between DAP and Umno bode well for their coalition, it is still a raw relationship scabbed from decades of ferocious and relentless attacks from both sides. 

Will Muda piecemeal populism ever become a sustainable raison d’etre? 

The formula for successful politics in Malaysia appears to be two-pronged – multiracialism and a buy-in from Bornean parties. 

In the case of Muda, it is not only confined to the peninsula but it is only active in urban areas, which are typically DAP and PKR’s traditional strongholds. 

The party is centred on personalities and lacks structure and a large grassroots movement.

The problem is, the manoeuvrability that a lack of structure buys you becomes problematic should the movement grow and proliferate.  

The paradox here is, the unique selling point of the party dissolves once you achieve the scale you need to be strong enough to take on large parties such as DAP, PKR, or even PAS. 

While the party has relatively stronger branding and popularity compared to older parties such as PSM, it lacks the energy to evolve into a full-fledged people’s movement and the political will for it to be organised into grassroots and cadres.

To complicate matters, on both ends, its support base overlaps with that of its former allies, and it may be unwilling to make a complete shift to Muda’s side. 

Until it decides which way to go, Muda will likely fully use its platforms and personality cults to extend its reach as far as possible.

Beyond that, it is difficult to see the party’s future, or whether it has one. – September 15, 2023.

* Emmanuel Joseph firmly believes that Klang is the best place on Earth, and that motivated people can do far more good than any leader with motive.