AMANAH faces an uphill battle in the coming twin by-elections in Johor due to the party’s weakness in attracting Malay voters, political analysts said.

They said the Malay-based Pakatan Harapan (PH) component party may be able to win the Pulai parliamentary seat but risks losing in the Simpang Jeram state seat due to the high composition of Malay electors in the constituency.

They added that the risk of defeat in the state seat is higher due to the shift of Malay votes towards Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said the large support of non-Malay voters, however, is expected to remain in favour of PH, and Barisan Nasional (BN) by extension.

“Amanah’s strength in these two areas is due to them being mixed constituencies, which is indeed an advantage for PH because it has high support from non-Malay voters.

“But if the percentage of Malay voters coming out to vote is small, it may affect the majority obtained,” he said.

Therefore, support for BN is vital in ensuring Amanah’s candidates win the two seats comfortably, he added.

“The situation in Simpang Jeram is different. If non-Malay voter turnout is low and Malay voters who come out to vote are high and we assume they will vote for PN, Amanah is exposed to danger.

“If Amanah is looking for a victory, it will need BN’s support,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Hisommudin said Amanah has failed to get the support of Malay voters because the party turned away from the Islamic and Malay image.

Amanah was established by a group of former PAS leaders – known as professionals or progressives – following a clash with the Islamist party’s religious group in 2015.

This group of professional leaders rejected PAS’ decision to leave the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat coalition between PAS, PKR and DAP.

Hisomuddin said Amanah wants to be seen as an inclusive party that accepts everyone as it was when PAS was led by the late Nik Aziz Nik Mat.

“That’s why we see Amanah concentrated in urban or semi-urban areas, the areas where they’ve had electoral success.”

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Mazlan Ali expressed a similar view. He saw the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections as a test of PH’s strength.

On paper it may indicate a PH victory in the Pulai seat but greater opposition from the PN is expected in Simpang Jeram, he said.

“The by-election is not really about Amanah, it is more about the PH brand, because if you compete under Amanah alone, you may lose.

“For the Simpang Pulai seat, PH may survive but with less majority as we assume there might be split votes in BN.

“Also, the turnout percentage will affect the results,” he said.

Change of strategy needed

Mazlan added that PAS has great influence in Simpang Jeram, apart from the seat’s proximity to Pagoh, a seat belonging to PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin.

“There is a 50-50 chance because Simpang Jeram used to be known as Sungai Abong and PAS had won twice there.

“It means that it is a PAS stronghold. And there is the fact that the area is close to Pagoh and Muar – both areas close to Muhyiddin.

“We cannot deny Muhyiddin’s influence,” he said.

The analyst also said one must take into account the possibility of split votes caused by Independent candidates.

As such, Mazlan said Amanah needs to change its strategy by taking a different approach from PKR or DAP who focus on social media platforms to get closer to voters.

Mazlan said Amanah needs to be more aggressive in approaching Malay voters.

“It has to be close to Malay institutions. Get to the grassroots,” he said.

He said Amanah has to compete with PAS which builds its strength through religious institutions such as local mosque committees and education programmes.

“PAS has influence because it is close with the people, with the grassroots. They control the mosques.

“PAS also has its own education programmes, so the key to attracting these Malays is to go out and approach them.

“But you can’t do that when the election is near because it requires a long process,” he said.

The Simpang Jeram state seat and Pulai parliamentary by-elections will be held on September 9 following the death of incumbent Salahuddin Ayub on July 23.

PH named former Johor assembly speaker Suhaizan Kayat from Amanah to stand in Pulai.

Suhaizan will be challenged by Zulkifli Jaafar (PN) and Independent Samsudin Mohamad Fauzi.

In Simpang Jeram, Nazri Abdul Rahman (Amanah) will be challenged by Mohd Mazri Yahya (PN) and Independent candidate, S. Jeganathan.

The urban Pulai parliamentary constituency, located in southern Johor, was a BN stronghold until PH won it in the 2018 general election (GE14).

It is a Malay-majority seat (51.23%), followed by Chinese (36.88%), Indians (10.11%) and others (2.47%).

Salahuddin wrested the Pulai seat from BN’s Nur Jazlan Mohamed in GE14 with a 28,924-vote majority and beat him again in GE15 with a 33,174-vote majority.

Simpang Jeram, meanwhile, is a semi-rural state seat under the Bakri parliamentary constituency in northern Johor. This is also a Malay-majority seat (almost 55%), followed by Chinese(43.32%) and Indians (2.75%), and the remainder being others.

PAS had won the seat in GE12 and GE13, but PH claimed it in GE14 through Salahuddin with a 7,687-vote majority, and again in last year’s Johor elections with a 2,399-vote majority. – August 30, 2023.