THE outcome of the elections in six states has raised challenging questions for both sides of the political spectrum to contemplate in the long term.

Doubts will inevitably be cast over the leadership of Anwar Ibrahim due to his administration’s failure to secure Malay support.

The post-election scenario would have been significantly different for the prime minister and his coalition if they had been competitive in the three states that PN dominated while maintaining their support base in the states they governed.

However, PH-BN was wiped out in the PN states, and most significantly, the pact was denied a two-thirds majority in Selangor.

The results of the last general election suggested that PN would be competitive in Selangor, but the alliance between PH and BN became the crucial factor enabling PN to expand its presence and deprive PH of a supermajority in the state.

PH was considered unassailable in Selangor because it had secured 51 of the 56 state seats just five years ago.

Yet, upon closer inspection of the winning margins, it becomes evident that it was only possible for PH to win some of the state’s Malay seats in 2018 because PAS was there to split the votes for Barisan Nasional.

PAS standing apart from PH and BN changed the game as a three-way contest under the first-past-the-post system tends to produce a winner who doesn’t necessarily enjoy majority support.

For instance, PKR won the Sabak state seat in Selangor in 2018, but the party only managed to secure 34.2% of the votes, while both BN and PAS garnered respectable percentages of 33.5% and 32.3%, respectively.

This was arguably one of the most competitive seats in Selangor in 2018, when the electoral strengths of the three parties were closely matched.

However, a three-way contest weakened Umno as its dissatisfied supporters, unhappy with the Najib Razak administration but wary of PH, could now vote for PAS as a form of protest against BN.

Though PAS only won a single seat in Selangor in 2018, it became a spoiler to BN in many Malay seats, indirectly overstating PH’s electoral strength in Selangor.

Securing 51 out of 56 seats in Selangor doesn’t accurately reflect the reality and popularity of the PH state government.

This is essential to consider when analysing the Selangor results in 2023. While it might seem that PH enjoyed an overwhelming majority in Selangor in 2018, this situation was possible only because PAS split the votes for Umno.

Hence, the discussion now revolves around vote transferability between BN and PH supporters.

Ideally, the unity coalition would prefer complete vote transferability, where combined BN and PH votes would easily surpass PN’s, rendering the “green wave” inconsequential in Selangor.

However, the results in 2023 suggest that the only vote transferability in Selangor was BN voters shifting to PN.

Most notably, the seats previously won by PH due to vote splitting were all flipped by PN, indicating that BN votes didn’t return to either BN or PH.

It’s safe to assume that, at least in Selangor, there’s no incentive for PH to form an alliance with BN.

Furthermore, the alliance could even cost PH seats in Selangor as there are no longer three-way contests for PH to capitalise on.

This could be the deciding factor for PH between retaining Selangor and maintaining a two-thirds majority. Even with the inclusion of BN, which is unpopular among Malays, PH is only a few seats away from a two-thirds majority.

In a three-way contest, an independent BN in Selangor would likely retain some political influence and, importantly for PH, secure some Malay votes to prevent a complete shift to PN.

Consequently, under a plurality voting system, PH might have achieved more in Selangor by pursuing a political relationship where they share power at the federal level but compete against each other at the state level.

Such a political relationship is not new in Malaysia. BN experienced it with Bersatu in the 2022 Johor and Malacca elections.

Perhaps it’s time for PH to contemplate this option for its electoral survival. – August 20, 2023.

* Kenneth Cheng has always been interested in the interplay between human rights and government but more importantly he is a father of two cats, Tangyuan and Toufu. When he is not attending to his feline matters, he is most likely reading books about politics and human rights or playing video games. He is a firm believer in the dictum “power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will”.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.