THE green wave – which is the surge of Malay support for Perikatan Nasional (PN) – is unlikely to abate, with observers saying there are signs it will only strengthen at the next general election (GE).

They said Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) – the main forces in the federal unity government – need to do much more if they want to swing Malay support their way.

They told The Malaysian Insight that Umno is likely to be the biggest casualty if the unity pact does nothing about the problems and interests of Malays and Muslims.

“If Umno doesn’t change its leadership, including pushing its president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to resign, then the party will not be able to regain the support of Malay voters,” said Council of National Professors senior fellow Jeniri Amir.

Jeniri said Malay voters stayed away from Umno in the August 12 state polls because of the party’s cooperation with DAP and PH.

“Even if (Umno) replaces Zahid, it’s going to be difficult as the (top leadership) has already disappointed the members, so it will be difficult to rise again.

“And with the cooperation with DAP and PH, voters will continue to shun Umno,” he said.

In the six-state elections, PN achieved major victories in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. It also denied the PH-BN pact a two-thirds majority in Selangor by winning 22 out of the 56 seats.

PN also added seats to its grasp in Penang and Negri Sembilan.

Overall, PN won 146 seats out of the 245 seats it contested. Umno only won 19 out of the 107 seats it contested.

Umno failed to win any seat in Kedah and Terengganu, and won only one in Kelantan. It lost ground in Penang, Selangor and even Negri Sembilan, where it performed best.

Jeneri said he is not confident PH and BN will be able to change Malays’ perception of them before the next GE.

“It’s going to be difficult because it’s a massive wave. They might be able to control it (green wave) but not overcome it in the next four years.

“Unless something big happens in PN then it could be a different situation,” he said.

Countering the PN narrative

Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Azmil Tayeb said the phenomenon was a sign most Malays want PN to represent Malay and Muslim interests.

“PN now is what BN used to be when it was at its peak.”

He said PH and BN can regain Malays’ trust by reshuffling and reforming their leadership, which includes the removal of Zahid.

“The unity government can introduce economic policies that benefit the B40 group, the majority of whom are Malays.

“The government can also introduce progressive and inclusive agenda and values in mosques, surau, schools and religious subjects to counter PN’s narrative,” he said.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Mazlan Ali said the state polls showed the green wave is becoming stronger.

“Umno used to be an old party that fought for Muslim Malays. That image needs to be restored,” he said.

He said the government must create political awareness among youth.

“This is because many of them are confused by political narratives, especially the 18-19 year olds. They are easily manipulated because they are exposed to social media.

“This group needs guidance and the government needs to hold programmes to entice youth.” – August 18, 2023.