YOUNG voters below 40 years old are split, with those voting for the first time likely to support the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, said think-tank Ilham Centre.

A majority of those aged 21 to 25 are likely to support BN while those older than 25 are expected to ditch the Najib administration, said analyst Hisommudin Bakar.

The difference in sentiment boils down to cost of living and economic pressures, which have hit those above 25 and older harder, said Hisommudin, Ilham Centre’s executive director.

Revealing his latest focus group studies in Johor and Kelantan, Hisommudin said the southern BN and Umno bastion is likely to remain in the coalition’s hands despite a vigorous campaign by Pakatan Harapan. 

Islamist party PAS, however, is likely to lose after ruling Kelantan for nearly 30 years but it is still a toss-up over whether BN or PH will take over the government. 

Voters under 40 make up 41% of all registered voters in the 14th general election.

The ratio is higher in states like Kelantan and Terengganu, where more than 50% of voters are under 40.

According to data, an average of 1,000 voters are lost due to death while the average number of newly registered voters is about 4,000. 

“Those in the 21-to-25 bracket are more pro-BN because they are still enjoying themselves, studying and being funded by PTPTN (National Higher Education Loan fund).”

The government’s 1M4U (1Malaysia for Youth) initiative has also been popular with this age bracket.

“But those aged above 25 are starting their careers and they are starting to get squeezed by the high cost of living.”

In the last general election, 63% of voters below 40 were pro-BN but now, this number has gone down to only 41%. Those who support the opposition make up 36% while 33% are undecided.

“The fence-sitters, I believe, will lean towards PH due to cost of living pressures and because of PH’s policy proposals. Also, they are more exposed to different sources of information,” he said.

According to the Election Commission, as of June 30, 2017, there are 14.622 million voters. Of that number, 7.883 million are Malays while 3.637 million are under 40.

Some 1.566 million Malays are below 29 but there is no specific data for those below 25.

Johor and Kelantan

In the focus group studies in Johor, Hisommudin said Malays in towns along the North-South Highway, which cut through the state from Muar to Batu Pahat to Johor Baru are more likely to vote for PH.

Those living in Johor’s more rural eastern coast, such as Mersing, Kota Tinggi and Pengerang, are likely to remain with BN.

Studies in the state seat of Semerang in Ayer Hitam and Johor’s settlements show that a majority of Malays want to remain with BN.

“The thing about Johor is that it has a very efficient government delivery system which ensures that local council services are good and organised. Voters are happy with local services.

“But they do admit that life was better under (PH prime minister-designate) Dr Mahathir Mohamad compared with (current PM) Najib Razak.”   

The situation in Johor is the opposite of Kelantan where most of its Malay residents want PAS out of the state government.

Ilham’s findings tally with a The Malaysian Insight survey in Kelantan, which showed that residents were fed up with the state for its weak local council services.

“The talk in the coffee shops and the atmosphere in Kelantan clearly show they want a change in state government.

“But they are wondering how come Umno is not aggressively going around to harness this anger?” he said, adding that BN stands to benefit the most in three-cornered fights between BN, PH and PAS.

“PH is the one that has been working hard.”

PAS controls Kelantan with 32 out of 45 state assembly seats. However, 16 of those seats were won with slim majorities while the rest were won with comfortable margins.

“The 16 marginal seats PAS will lose. But even in the seats where it won big, PAS stands to lose them as about 30% of their supporters have run to Amanah (a PH component party).” – March 28, 2018.