A STRONG Malay party is vital for any ruling coalition to ensure political stability as the growing majority of the population in the country consists of Malays, political analysts said.

They said any administration in Putrajaya will be unstable and open to uncertainties without a Malay party as the backbone of the ruling pact.

Currently, Umno is the main Malay party in the unity government led by Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Harapan (PH). However, it is seen as losing its Malay base.

At the opposition end, both Bersatu and PAS are strong Malay-based parties under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) banner.

“In today’s politics, this government is unstable and wavering without direction, without a pillar, so there is a need for a Malay party to be that pillar.

“In the past, Umno used to be the backbone of the government. Whether they were good or bad, that’s another question. With that influence waning, especially after the 2018 general election (GE14), the government today appears weak,” said political activist and writer Hishamuddin Rais.

The situation, he said, will continue until a new Malay political party that is capable of becoming a pillar in the government emerges.

“A strong Malay party is necessary in the administration of the country. In Malaysia, the Malays are the backbone. This is a fact. This pillar is what defines the movement and direction of the country’s politics. The Malays steer the country’s political direction.

“The party that becomes the core or offers hegemony must be held by a Malay party, this is the reality at this point. We need this to guide this country,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Umno’s popularity has been waning in every general election since 2008. In the last general election (GE15), Umno won only 26 parliamentary seats out of 120 contested. Overall, Barisan Nasional (BN) contributed 30 seats from 175 contested.

In comparison, during 2004 general election (GE11), BN won 198 parliamentary seats with Umno contributing 109 seats.

In the 2008 polls (GE12), Umno scored only 79 seats while BN, which won a total of 140 seats, also lost its two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat for the first time since 1969.

BN’s performance continued to decline in 2013 (GE13), when it captured only 133 seats with Umno winning 88 seats.

GE14 then saw BN lose power for the first time as a government to PH, winning just 79 seats, while Umno only got 54 seats.

The worst came in last year’s general election, but Umno and BN formed an alliance with PH to form the unity government along with parties from Sabah and Sarawak.

The results, however, showed that the unity government coalition does not have the support of the Malay majority, which is now seen as controlled by Bersatu and PAS.

“PH does not have vast Malay support. They might have maybe between 10% to 15% (of Malay support).

“However, this does not guarantee the government’s stability because the Malays who left Umno went to either Bersatu or PAS,” said Hishamuddin.

As such, he said, the competition to get the support of MPs or parties as a whole to form a government will persist.

Umno must deliver in state polls

Meanwhile, pollster Ilham Centre said for the unity government to extend beyond its current term, PH and Umno must ensure that the latter starts to regain Malay support.

Its executive director Hisommudin Bakar said the looming state elections will be a clear indication to see Umno’s real support base.

Hisommudin said in GE15, the rejection may have been caused by sabotage from within the party itself, in addition to PN’s massive campaigning success.

“PN is seen to be skilled with carrying out an aggressive campaign. Its machinery really hit it off, causing fence sitters to support them.

“Umno managed to hold on to the votes from its supporters. It’s just that Umno and BN did not get new votes.

“Based on the GE15 results, Umno is no longer the backbone of the Malays but we don’t know if it is a permanent or temporary transition to PN,” he said.

The burden, he said, rests on Umno’s shoulders to prove that it is capable of pulling the support back, especially with the advantage of being in the government.

“Groups that are not in line with the party leadership have been purged after the recent Umno elections.

“Umno’s strength will be tested with the state polls. The Malay referendum will be seen in these six states whether the Malays return to support BN and Umno or the pattern has shifted to PN,” he added.

He said that the state elections will also prove the extent to which Malay voters are able to accept the cooperation of PH and BN, especially among Umno members themselves.

“If the Malays are still sceptical and cannot accept the formation of this government, this will create a problem for the stability of the government.”

Hisommudin said an Ilham Centre study conducted in March 2023 showed that Umno members still found it difficult to answer whether they would vote for PH, while PH voters said the opposite.

“The transfer of BN votes to PH is a question mark, it seems difficult for them to vote if the seat is being contested by PH. It is quite difficult for them to tell us whether they will vote for the PH candidate due to the presence of DAP and Anwar.

“But for PH supporters, in seats contested by BN, PH supporters said they can vote for BN candidates because they cannot accept PN and PAS,” he added.

Hisommudin said Umno and BN should draw up a new strategic plan for GE16 if the same pattern repeats itself in the next federal polls.

“You want to see Umno regain Malay support because there is no one in PH that can attract Malay support. Amanah and PKR are not parties with a Malay image.

“That’s a problem that will continue to be faced by PH. It is dependent on Umno to draw in the Malay vote,” he said. – May 24, 2023.