ONLY two colours dominate the landscape in the 230km drive from Kemaman to Kuala Besut: blue and green. 

These are the colours of Barisan Nasional and PAS. The competing flags and banners are also a clear indication that in Terengganu, Pakatan Harapan is still playing catch-up with the big boys.

Zahari Ali, a trader in Chukai, said: “Voters are split between BN and PAS here”.

He was responding to queries on how successful Pakatan Harapan has been in making inroads into the oil-rich state.

Zahari’s views reflected those of many other voters The Malaysian Insight spoke to in Terengganu.

Many of those interviewed said they supported either BN or PAS, an indication perhaps that GE14 has come too soon for PH to break the BN-PAS hold on power in the state.

The state was a fixed deposit for BN until 1999 when on the back of anger in the Malay community against the sacking and jailing of Anwar Ibrahim, PAS came to power, winning 28 out of the 32 seats on offer. 

But abysmal economic management and general incompetence ensured that Abdul Hadi Awang and friends stayed in power for only one term.

In 2004, BN won 28 seats. That comfortable hold in the state assembly dropped to 17 in 2013, with PAS obtaining 13 seats and PKR having one seat.

Umno Terengganu information chief Wan Abdul Hakim Wan Mokhtar said BN is capable of winning at least 24 seats this time.

“I’m confident we are on the right track and our machinery is in tip-top shape,” said Wan Hakim after a GE14 machinery briefing in Kemanan.

BN is focusing on regaining the ground it lost in the Kuala Terengganu constituency.

In GE13, the opposition captured the state seats – Ladang, Batu Burok, Bandar, Wakaf Mempelam – in the Kuala Terengganu area.

The opposition, however, is expected to hold on to the Kuala Terengganu federal seat held by PH state chief Raja Kamarul Bahrin Raja Ahmad while Bandar is similarly expected to be defended by Azan Ismail.

Youth and women voters

Despite having the odds stacked against it, PH still believes that Terengganu will hold some surprises for the ruling coalition in the next general election.

PH Terengganu information chief Hambali Abdul Latif said the polls will be determined by those under the age of 40, which make up more than half of the total number of voters in Terengganu.

Those below the age of 40 total 394,165 voters or 53.4%. Terengganu has 737,940 voters.

“This group is not likely to vote BN or PAS as they are more open-minded and are exposed to other sources of information via social media and through their professions,” said Hambali in Kuala Terengganu.

“Only the streams 1 and 2, older voters, have said directly that they are supporting BN or PAS.

“We are confident of getting young and women voters, who are better exposed to other information.”

PAS, meanwhile, is reaching out to young and female voters by promising to bear certain wedding expenses for those marrying for the first time and setting up childcare centres in government departments. 

PAS is confident of taking 22 seats at the next elections and is targeting the Umno strongholds of Besut and Setiu.

However, recent studies by think-tanks have shown that PAS will lose heavily in Terengganu due to multi-cornered contests between itself, PH and BN.   

One study by Dr Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) found that PAS would only win two state seats, compared with the 14 it currently holds.   

Another study by Invoke revealed that in multi-candidate fights, PAS would lose all its seats in Terengganu while BN is expected to emerge the winner.

“Our predictions are based on reality and are not illogical. We are speaking based on facts,” said PAS Terengganu deputy commissioner Dr Alias Razak, citing the party’s internal studies.

“If on polling day, voters voted different, that’s another story. But this is as it stands now,” he said. – March 25, 2018.