TWO things stand in Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his party Bersatu’s way to win over the rural Malay vote: money and machinery at the grassroots level. 

The country’s longest serving prime minister can bank on his past popularity and success to impress rural folk, but more is needed to convince them, say political analysts. 

Keenly aware of the admiration many older Malays have for him, Dr Mahathir has been actively travelling across the country, especially into rural Malaysia where his former party, Umno, commands considerable support.

While the iconic former prime minister-turned-opposition leader’s programmes and appearances often draw large Malay crowds, political analysts are sceptical that the adoring audience will actual translate into votes at the ballot box.

They contend that a large Malay shift to the opposition is not possible because Bersatu – the party Dr Mahathir started after he quit Umno in 2016 – is sorely lacking in funds and grassroots machinery.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Ethnic Studies Institute director Professor Dr Shamsul Amri Baharuddin said Dr Mahathir might be popular with Malay voters, but his party could not rival Umno in machinery and influence.

“He is respected by the people, but it is still uncertain if they will vote for him or put his party in power.

“Bersatu has no grassroot machinery, only disappointed former Umno members. Their complaints (about BN) are not enough to start a movement, let alone influence voters,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Associate Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said PH appeared to lack a “smooth mechanism” as compared to the BN.

“Its campaign strategy lacks focus, like the teaching of Maths and Science in English issue, which is a taboo for conservative voters,” he said.

Awang said some voters are also vulnerable to election goodies, like cash handouts, free petrol and meals, something which they have come to expect from BN, but PH can’t afford to offer.

“This certainly makes PH less attractive, compared to BN, which has been making voters such offers.

“Which party is more capable of paying for voters who are going back to their hometown to vote? The general perception remains that BN is better able to do this. That is the challenge PH faces,” he said.

Hopes high for a Malay tsunami

Still, most in Bersatu’s leadership and grassroots remain optimistic that the pull of the charismatic 92-year-old Dr Mahathir, along with their hard work, will come to fruition.

Rina Mohd Harun, who heads Bersatu Women’s wing Srikandi, said the party has been tireless in its efforts to endear itself to the voters since last year.

“We know our machinery is small. But we have quality,” she told The Malaysian Insight.

Rina said Srikandi also organises group ceramah events down to the polling district level.

“We have question-and-answer sessions, so Srikandi leaders can make speeches and talk to the people.

“The most important thing is we have to tell the people why we have to remove this kleptocratic government. What we offer is the voice of the people,” she said.

Grassroots leader Yusfazley Yusof dismissed naysayers, saying that many political analysts conducted their research without going to the ground.

He said the party has been signing up new members every week at on-the-ground registration centres.

“We have set up our polling district centres and are working with (PH partner) Amanah to go into villages.

“Every week, we also go to pasar malam (night markets) to register new members,” the Taiping Bersatu Youth division deputy chief told The Malaysian Insight.

Most analysts remain unconvinced. But Hisommudin Bakar, Ilham Centre’s executive director, said the only chance for Bersatu to make inroads into BN’s rural Malay voter base is in the form of silent protest votes.

“If there had been good momentum, Bersatu would have had a large increase in members and are able to move forward more smoothly,” he said, pointing out that openly, the level of support for Dr Mahathir among the Malays is short of spectacular.

“The question now is whether there is support in the form of silent protest among Malay voters,” he said.

“You will have to wait until the votes are counted to know whether a swing – a surprise Malay political tsunami – has happened.” – March 18, 2018.