THE main political rivalry nationwide is now between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) following the last general election and that appears to be the way forward for Malaysia in future polls, analysts said. 

In November, PH won 82 seats and PN 74, or 156 of the 222 seats in the Dewan Rakyat.

Barisan Nasional (BN) – which was the traditional superpower in the house until it was first ousted from government in 2018 – only won 30 seats.

Political analyst Azmil Tayeb from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) believes that the healthy competition between the two main coalitions will lead to political stability.

“The one-on-one match-up is very good. For now, the competition we see is between PN and PH

“Besides being able to stabilise Malaysia’s political landscape, it also reduces the focus on racial and religious sentiments,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Political lecturer at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Mazlan Ali saw the co-operation between BN and PH as more beneficial to both coalitions.

“When there is co-operation, of course the scenario tends to be one-on-one,” he said. 

Mazlan said that voter support, especially in rural areas and Malay majority areas, would lean towards PH and BN if Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration can fulfil the people’s wishes and resolve their issues.

“With the support of regular Umno voters, the co-operation looks strong and has the potential to compete with PN,” he added.

Earlier this week, PAS Central Committee Member Azman Ibrahim envisioned PH and PN clashing during the six state elections that need to happen before the middle of 2023.

He admitted that the matter was sensitive because the view also implied that BN would be out of the electoral competition.

Taking Terengganu as an example, Azman, the Jabi assemblyman, said it is possible PH and BN will distribute seats in the state election. 

“There will be seats that Umno will have to give to PH, even though PH’s performance here since 2018 has not been that good.

“That’s the custom when making friends, you give and you receive,” he wrote on Twitter.

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said a one-on-one competition was inevitable, based on the last general election. 

He said that after the polls, political parties that clearly lost due to fighting multiple opponents for a seat will return to a more practical one-on-one policy. 

Hisommudin said that BN, for example, needs to co-operate with PH and can no longer compete as a third block.

“If BN approaches the elections as it did in November, it will lose. The option it has is to have an understanding with PH to realise this one-on-one approach.

“We can see the synergy of this co-operation in the state elections or the next general election,” he said.

BN still relevant

On the other hand, Mazlan believed that BN cannot simply be erased from the country’s political sphere even though PN and PH are currently superior.

He cautions against underestimating BN’s capabilities even though the coalition has taken a battering at the past two general elections.

“BN lost first because of the shift in support, voters were angry with BN, especially the middle class and that segment shifted to PN.

“However, this BN still has the support of their fixed depositors. This support has not changed… that’s why in Malacca and Johor they can win with their regular voters alone,” he said referring to the two state elections within the past year. – December 31, 2022.