THERE are no fights between top politicians on the east coast in the run-up to the general election, according to analysts.

They said the election landscape is far removed from that in some areas of the western states, such as Titiwangsa and Sungai Buloh.

On the east coast, the competition in Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang is seen more as a measure to determine whether the respective parties can keep control of constituencies.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar told The Malaysian Insight that hot seats like Sungai Buloh have topped the charts in terms of excitement because of the personalities.

He noted that it was a safe constituency for Pakatan Harapan (PH) until Barisan Nasional confirmed Khairy Jamaluddin as its candidate.

“Similarly, the same can be said for Titiwangsa, two big names like Johari Abdul Ghani (BN) and Khalid Samad (PH) are going toe-to-toe.

“This clash of the titans will make supporters happy to see such a fierce contest, but on the east coast we don’t see such drama playing out – to the point that we cannot label a constituency ‘a hot seat’,” he said, adding that last-minute party hopping created a stir but nothing on the scale of the west coast.

For example, in Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, incumbent Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali will stand on a BN ticket after PAS dropped him.

However, Hisommudin said Ilham Centre’s data shows that PAS supporters will not be swayed, just because their MP is now running on a BN ticket.

The survey showed similar findings in Pasir Mas, Kelantan. Even if prominent figures such as Husam Musa from Amanah were contesting, it did not make that constituency a hot seat.

However, it drew attention because young voters were quite critical of the state leaders and whether the support shifted to Husam.

“So, will they vote against PAS or will they silently protest? This situation makes Husam the focus (of whether he will) receive the support of the silent protest group.

“Therefore, this is an unsafe seat but not a hot seat. It can be a grey seat, with a 50-50 chance of winning,” he said.

Political analyst Mazlan Ali said the election will measure the influence of BN and PAS, and which can become the dominant party on the east coast.

However, he thinks that recent developments have seen PAS’ support may have declined due to its performance of governing three states and also in federal administration.

“In Kelantan, there is a Save Kelantan movement so there seems to be a little (support), especially among the voters on the fence as the deciding factor.

“The election is actually more about the direction of the voters. If they are not satisfied with PAS, will they switch to Umno or BN even though that party also has many problems?”

Mazlan believed that voter support this time is not influenced by national issues, such as those during the 2018 elections, which saw a wave of BN rejection.

Here are 10 east coast seats to watch on November 19:

Bentong

The Bentong constituency became the focus after DAP dropped Wong Tack in favour of Malay candidate Young Syefura Othman campaigning under the PH banner.

He will face Liow Tiong Lai (BN), Roslan Hassan (Perikatan Nasional) and Wong, who decided to run as an Independent even though he only won by 2,032 votes in 2018.

Pekan

BN nominated Sh Mohmed Fuzi Sh Ali for the Umno stronghold after Najib Razak was jailed for corruption.

Najib’s former official is challenged by Mohd Naim Zainal Abidin (PH), Tengku Zainul Hisyam Tengku Hussin (Independent), Mohammad Radhi Abdul Razak (Pejuang) and Mohd Fadhil Noor Abdul Karim (PN).

Indera Mahkota

Incumbent Saifuddin Abdullah is now with PN, having left PKR following the infamous Sheraton Move in February 2020.

Saifuddin will be challenged by Quek Tai Seong (BN), Zuraidi Ismail (PH) and Dr Mohamad Nor Sundari (Pejuang).

Saifuddin is expected to face a difficult challenge to defend the seat first won by PKR 2008.

Ketereh

BN’s decision to drop Annuar Musa and replace him with Umno women’s chief Marzuani Ardila Ariffin surprised many of the party’s supporters.

The decision to drop Annuar was linked to a clash with Umno president, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, in part because Annuar is close to PN.

As a new face, Marzuani will face Khlir Mohd Nor (PN), Rahimi L. Muhamud, (PH) and Haneef Ibrahim (Pejuang).

In 2018, Annuar won with a majority of 4,626 votes, defeating Wan Ismail Wan Jusoh from PAS and Mohd Radzi Jidin from Bersatu.

Both Annuar and Radzi were appointed as ministers in Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s cabinet.

Tumpat

After being dropped by PN, Che Abdullah Mat Nawi hopped over to BN. The former deputy minister sparked controversy due to an online marriage and losing his cabinet place when Ismail became prime minister.

He will be challenged by candidates Wan Mohd Johari Wan Omar (PN), Che Muhammad Aswari Che Ali (Pejuang), and Khairul Azuan Kamarrudin (Warisan).

Che Abdullah won in 2018 with a huge 17,500-vote majority.

Pasir Mas

Amanah leader Husam Musa runs as a PKR candidate after not being listed by his own party.

Husam will challenge incumbent Ahmad Fadhli Shaari, who is also the PAS youth leader, in addition to Ab Ghani Harun (BN) and Nasrul Ali Hasan (Pejuang).

Husam is expected to be competitive thanks to his popular Save Kelantan movement.

Bachok

PAS’ decision to drop Nik Abduh, the son of the prominent figure of the Islamic party Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, surprised their supporters.

Instead, it will field Abdul Hadi Awang’s political secretary, Mohd Syahir Che Sulaiman, against Mohd Zain Yasim (BN), Nor Azmiza Mamat (PH) and Kamarul Azam Osman (Pejuang) in the seat.

Kuala Nerus

Similar to Tumpat, Khairuddin has hopped from PAS to BN. He will be challenged by an exco and veteran state leaders, Alias Razak (PN) and Azaha Wahid (Pejuang).

BN’s choice is unpopular with grassroots Umno Kuala Nerus supporters, who were disappointed that their candidate, former menteri besar Ahmad Razif Abd Rahman, was not selected.

Hulu Terengganu

Incumbent Rosol Wahid won this seat in 2018 for BN but when the party lost the election, Rosol quit Umno and joined Bersatu, resulting in the Malay party losing one of its strongholds in the state.

Rosol (now PN) is challenged by Rozi Mamat (BN), Alias Ismail (PH) and Mohd Khadri Abdullah (Pejuang).

Besut

Nawi Mohamad (BN) will face Che Mohamad Zulkifly Jusoh (PN), Abd Aziz Abas (PH) and Wan Nazari Jusoh (Pejuang).

Besut is known as one of Umno’s strongholds difficult for PAS to penetrate.

However, the decision to dump Idris Jusoh, who is an influential figure in the area, is a risk for BN.

While Idris won in 2013 with a majority of more than 8,000, by 2018 his support had declined, winning by 4,500 votes. – November 11, 2022.