TWO months ago, I wrote an article titled: “Will Sabah be the next kingmaker?”

For the upcoming general election (GE), East Malaysia is more than just a kingmaker but had also been promised the position of deputy prime minister by the major coalitions of Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan.

Political observers predicted that no one single party or a political coalition is expected to win a simple majority. 

A strong East Malaysian bloc is needed to support and strengthen the next federal government. 

To achieve the desired number, the local parties need to work together to increase their seats and bargaining power.

Both Sabah and Sarawak have their own strategies to reach their objectives but they also have different histories that influence the local parties’ political culture.

The composition of Sarawak parties is more straightforward as they have stronger bonds and are more powerful than their Sabah counterparts.

Political fragmentation in Sabah has led to many “mosquito” parties holding one or two seats in parliament.

Many political parties were registered simply because they were established by BN to undermine the Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) state government.

BN and PH have also wooed Sabah parties to join them, further dividing the local political landscape. 

Due to federal intervention in Sabah’s politics, the state’s politicians have lost autonomy over the appointment of the chief minister.

Now with 25 parliamentary seats at stake, parties with an eye on Putrajaya must look to Sabah for the numbers.

Interestingly, some local parties have already declared their affiliations with the peninsular coalitions.

For example, Upko has joined PH and GRS is pro-BN. 

Warisan has remained neutral.

GRS, PH and Warisan hold 11, 6, and 6 parliamentary seats, respectively. 

On the other hand, the political landscape of Sarawak is very clear cut, divided into local parties and peninsular-based parties. 

Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) is expected to function as a stabilising factor, balancing the power struggle and shifting political allegiances on the peninsula if parliament is hung.

Following the political turmoil since the ousting of the PH government in 2020, Sarawak has provided sufficient seats for the ruling coalitions of BN and PN to form a stable federal government.

In addition, a big victory for GPS in the Sarawak elections last yea is a sign of its influence popularity.

This further strengthens the bargaining power of GPS.

However, if any of the peninsular coalitions should win more than 112 seats on their own, they will not need GPS or any Sabah parties to form a new government.

It is all about numbers. The general election outcome will determine whether we will see an East Malaysian DPM. – October 31, 2022.

* Esther Sinirisan Chong is a member of Agora Society. She was born and raised in the Land Below the Wind. Her research interest lies in education and government policies, and the history and heritage of East Malaysia.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.