The general election will be a repeat of the Johor polls, with a convincing win for Barisan Nasional (BN), unless the voter turnout changes, political observers said.

Only a voter turnout in excess of 60% will make victory possible for Pakatan Harapan (PH), they said.

“The opposition has to hope for a high turnout and that the people’s anger at BN’s arrogance is reflected in the ballot,” Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar told The Malaysian Insight.

Election Commission (EC) statistics showed there were 14.9 million registered voters in the 2018 election, 12.3 million or 82.3% of whom voted.

The new electoral roll will see the addition of 6.9 million new voters, he said.

According to estimates, 18- to 40-year-olds make up 58% of the 21 million registered voters.

“The opposition needs 75% of the registered voters to vote to reverse the pattern of support for BN,” he said.

Johor PH deputy chief Liew Chin Tong has expressed hope for a higher voter turnout at the polls.

Universiti Utara Malaysia associate professor Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said more than 60% of the voters must turn up for PH to have a chance of defeating BN.

According to University Malaya Centre for Democracy and Elections sociopolitical analyst Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the opposition needs to woo the young voters to stand a chance.

“The opposition needs to mobilise voters aged 18 to 40 to go and vote. It needs to raise issues that concern this group,” he said.

University of Tasmania Asia political analyst Prof James Chin said that the turnout rate has proved consistent throughout the years.

He said a low voter turnout would mean people are frustrated.

“It is too hard to predict because if there is heavy rain or flooding on voting day, that could affect the turnout.

“It depends on the weather and other unforeseen factors, and also how well the political parties can arrange to ferry people (to the polls and back),” he said.

“The low turnouts (in Malacca and Johor) were partly because of fear of Covid-19,” Chin said.

“It was quite clear that people are no longer concerned about Covid-19 and hence the key drivers for turnout will be how hot the election is, the candidates and what the parties can offer.

Hisommudin predicted that voters will likely choose the same parties for the state seats and the parliamentary seats.

He said there were more Malay and fewer Chinese voters  in the Johor polls compared to the 2018 general election while Indian support was evenly distributed between PH and BN,” he said.

He said positive developments, such as the introduction of an anti-party hopping bill, the jailing of former prime minister Najib Razak and a guilty verdict for his wife Rosmah Mansor, could help to raise the number of non-Malay voters.

As such, he said the opposition does have a chance of winning.

“BN is expecting a low voter turnout and hopes to use the divided opposition to its advantage,” he said. – October 14, 2022.