UMNO grassroots leaders fear Pakatan Harapan (PH) will be the biggest winner if the tussle between Barisan Nasional’s (BN) two biggest partners over who should contest the Tanjong Malim parliamentary seat in Perak, remain unresolved when the general election is called.

Umno wants to contest the seat after MCA failed to win it for BN in the 2018 general election. Local Umno leaders said MCA’s continued interest in contesting the seat is causing problems for the coalition.

Tanjung Malim Umno division deputy chairman Mohamad Hatta Lodin said that it will be difficult for BN to win the seat – currently held by PH’s Chang Lih Kang – if MCA continues to field its candidate.

He told The Malaysian Insight that Tanjong Malim voters had voiced sentiments that BN should field a Malay candidate.

“This seat has about 60,000 Malay voters and there will be an increase of about 10,000 new ones in the latest electoral roll.

“From the sentiments, support from the Malays is very strong. We also conducted a study that showed a majority of Tanjong Malim folk want a Malay candidate,” he said.

There is also a reported fear among MCA leaders that they will again be rejected if the candidate they fielded in the last general election, Dr Mah Hang Soon, is named.

Hatta said at the last general election, former MCA secretary-general Ong Ka Chuan, then the incumbent, had relinquished the seat to Mah.

“And now it also seems like there are some in MCA who do not want Mah to contest again. So we are telling MCA if there is really a dispute among themselves, they should try to resolve it first but in the meantime give the seat to Umno to contest.

“What we worry is that the dispute in MCA will negatively impact BN as fielding a candidate without the full support will only invite sabotage or boycott from disappointed party supporters,” Hatta said.

About 55% of the more than 68,600 voters in Tanjong Malim are Malays, with Chinese making up 25.6%, Indians (13%) and Orang Asli (5.86%).

Almost half of the Malay voters are Felda settlers who have been the base of BN’s dominance in the area for a long time until 2018.

However, support for BN started to diminish from the 2014 general election and it eventually lost the seat in the 2018 polls to PKR’s Chang, who won with a massive 5,358-vote majority.

Even though he was defeated in the polls, Mah was later sworn in as deputy education minister after the PH administration collapsed.

Umno made its intention to contest the Tanjong Malim seat known in June last year.

MCA repeatedly said it won’t give up its “traditional seat”.

MCA division chairman Goh Choong Seng reportedly said the party will defend the seat and will field its own candidate.

Umno is reportedly pressured to field its candidate in the next polls over fears that it would be harder for the party to win if this semi-urban area becomes a full-fledged urban area.

Hatta said he will be the first to admit it will be hard for BN to wrest the seat back if the area becomes fully urban, citing a similar situation in Selangor.

He said Behrang, one of the rural constituencies that make up the Tanjong Malim seat, was a good example. Behrang is now developing rapidly as an industrial town thanks to Proton City and the car assembly plants, he added.

“We are hearing that Proton City in Shah Alam will relocate to Behrang. Imagine city dwellers from Shah Alam moving to Behrang and urbanising this area.”

Hatta said BN has won Behrang easily for years because of its semi-urban, semi-rural nature and if they are to contest and win in Tanjong Malim, then it would be easy for Umno “to educate voters to support Umno”.

He said BN lost Behrang in the last polls outing due to sabotage, pointing to the 3,000 voters who did not go out to vote. 

Apart from Behrang, Slim is also a rural Malay-majority seat within the Tanjong Malim parliamentary constituency, while the other state seat, Sungkai, is semi-urban and made up of mostly Chinese voters.

Hatta believes if Umno fields its own candidate in Tanjong Malim, it will win, owing to Chang’s underperformance.

“Among the problems people in Tanjong Malim faced are flash floods and the relief response. We in Umno are always ready for such a calamity.

“The people here are always complaining that their MP is slow to act. If help eventually comes, it may be two or three days later.”

Nonetheless, he said Tanjong Malim Umno will accede to BN’s choice of candidate, even if he is not from Umno.

Meanwhile, PKR election director Saiful Rizuan said PH’s victory would depend on the number of candidates contesting in Tanjong Malim.

He said PKR is not exactly in a comfortable position because PH did not win with a large majority in the last election.

“We are hearing there may be a four-cornered fight. A former elected representative of Behrang, Jamaluddin Mohd Radzi, had publicly declared he is contesting as an Independent.

“If this happens, we consider him a vote splitter. PH is certain it could win in a straight fight – PH versus BN – not a four-cornered contest that would have PH, BN, Perikatan Nasional and an Independent candidate.

“If PH does win, it will only be by a narrow margin. I think any party that wins will win by a slim margin because of the split votes,” he said.

He said PH could still lose the seat in a three-cornered fight.

On the sentiments of the Malays, Fauzi said nothing much has changed and that the Malay voters here are still loyal to Umno.

But he did not discount sentiments changing if their opponents, particularly those in PN, playing up the issue of former Umno president Najib Razak being jailed for corruption.

In addition, labour shortage and housing problems for Felda’s second-generation settlers could undermine support for Umno, he said.

“But I’m not sure those issues will make people here switch their votes to PN,” he said.

Saiful said he hoped PH will again field Chang, as he believes the incumbent had been consistent in serving the people here.

“It is up to the top leadership to decide on the candidate, but we hope he stays. After all, he is the vice president and he has served so brilliantly,” he said. – September 23, 2022.