THE opposition in Sarawak could be hard pressed to stop a Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) drubbing at the polls, come the next general election, analysts have said.

The four-party coalition of PBB as the lead party, Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) swept aside the opposition, winning 76 of 82 assembly seats in the December 18 state election.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) associate professor Lee Kuok Tiung said it is not boastful talk if people think GPS could win 28 of the state’s 31 constituencies.

He said their confidence was “based on the logic of the Sarawak election results”.

PBB vice president Abdul Karim Hamzah previously said GPS could hit this target 28 seats and claw back seats the coalition lost in the 2018 election.

He pointed to the state election results and what he said was ongoing momentum.

In the last general election, GPS won 19 parliamentary seats as Sarawak Barisan Nasional (BN).

However, it lost in all the Chinese-majority constituencies, as well as – to the surprise of many experts – the six Dayak-majority seats.

This total was later reduced to 18 as a result of a defection: PRS’s Sri Aman MP Masir Gujat left in March 2019 to join Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB).

Batu Lintang assemblyman See Chee How said Karim’s forecast is a “fair assessment”, while University of Tasmania’s Asian governance expert James Chin said the big win feeling is “consistent” in all the parties.

“GPS is feeling super confident after last year when it achieved a super majority,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Lee said the optimism should be tempered a little “to remember that voters often have different sentiments for the assembly and parliament”.

He added that the only thing that “could be confirmed” is that, overall, GPS will perform better than BN Sarawak in 2018 and SUPP will be able to do better in urban seats in the coming polls.

First, he said anti-Najib sentiment is a non-starter as a political issue in Sarawak, Lee said in reference to the jailing of former prime minister Najib Razak for corruption, noting that Sarawak Pakatan Harapan has said corruption will be a key issue in its campaign.

Second, Lee said within PH the strength of Sarawak PKR had declined tremendously.

“With its resources and strength, it is not wrong for GPS to aim big.”

Winning back some Chinese, Dayak seats

However, Lee said for GPS winning 25 seats “sounds more realistic”.

“We need to be pragmatic and give some room for error. There needs to be a margin of error in the confidence (level).”

Chin said GPS, through SUPP, could win some Chinese-majority seats and he pointed to Bandar Miri – whose incumbent is PKR’s Dr Michael Teo – and the two DAP seats of Lanang and Bandar Sibu, currently occupied by Alice Lau and Oscar Ling respectively.

“Miri is winnable. Teo is very weak,” Chin said even though he has held the seat for two terms since 2013.

Chin pointed to the three state seats within Bandar Miri – Senadin, Pujut and Piasau – all scalped by GPS/SUPP in the December poll.

State Transport Minister Lee Kim Shin retained his Senadin seat for a sixth term; Deputy Minister of Tourism, Creative Industry and Performing Arts Sebastian Ting also retained his Piasau seat; and Miri mayor Adam Yii wrestled back Pujut from DAP.

As for Bandar Sibu and Lanang, Chin said the voting pattern in the state election where the opposition was bitterly split would “drag down” Lau and Ling.

“No way for the opposition to come together. (GPS) can be a bit arrogant because it knows it is difficult for the opposition to come together for a united front.”

To add to the opposition’s Woe’s, Chin said smaller parties, like the pro-independence Parti Bumi Kenyalang (PBK), the coalition of small parties under the Gagasan Rakyat Sarawak banner, will become spoilers for PH, PSB and PAS again.

GPS is also touted to wrest back the Dayak-majority seats it lost in the 2018 election: Mas Gading from DAP, Puncak Borneo – whose incumbent Willie Monggin has been accepted as a PBB member – Lubok Antu, Saratok and Julau. – September 4, 2022.