ISMAIL Sabri Yaakob is Umno’s best election campaign material, with Najib Razak’s fall from grace after he was sentenced to jail for misappropriation of public funds, political analysts said.

They told The Malaysian Insight that the prime minister is able to attract the support of voters, especially those voting for the first time, as well as fence sitters.

This is hinged on Ismail’s stance not to interfere in court affairs during Najib’s trial, although Umno supporters and members have different stances.

According to Ilham Centre, Ismail’s clean image, as opposed to other Umno leaders, gives the Malay party a fighting chance.

The centre’s executive director Hisommudin Bakar said that Ismail projects an image acceptable to common voters, whose number are greater than the total of three million Umno members.

“That can help attract the support of new voters and restore old ones in the next general election. They (Umno) have remained with regular voters only.”

“Automatically registered voters and 18-year-olds casting their ballots for the first time can potentially increase this support.”

“If Barisan Nasional cannot capture this segment (of voters), they will not win,” said Hisommudin.

Therefore, he said Umno should use the Bera MP’s image to attract voters’ support, since the majority of the people are on his side.

“Ismail’s image is still clean and can be a selling point. The prime minister did not interfere in judicial matters despite strong pressure from the party. He was steadfast.”

“Although his actions are not popular among Umno members, that is what Ismail actually did.”

“Umno and BN should widely promote this image. They have to realise that the path Ismail is on is accepted by many. The party has to get out of the old rhetoric,” he said.

Ismail’s refusal to interfere in court matters related to Najib’s trial led to pressure from Umno leaders and members.

This was clearly evident in statements issued by party leaders in a programme organised by Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, a day after Najib’s incarceration. 

Zahid is also currently on trial over the alleged misuse of foundation funds.

He added that Ismail also needs to champion Umno’s campaign because the party needs to deal with the decline in support among its loyal voters.

Although BN won by a two-thirds majority in the Malacca and Johor elections, there was no increase in support for Umno, although its staunch voters remained loyal, he said.

It is clear that the support is now beginning to wane due to continuous exposure of the irregularities committed by Umno leaders.

“Umno needs to rid itself of the court cluster image. Its public portrayal as a party involved in corruption and misuse of public funds causes it to lose valuable support.”

“While the erosion of support isn’t much, Umno will still be weakened by the continuous exposures by the opposition,” Hisommudin said.

Researcher Mazlan Ali sees Ismail as someone who is able to fill the gap left by Najib, who previously drew voters in during election campaigning. 

He believes that Umno has no other choice but to make Ismail the “poster boy” to help BN’s campaign in the next general election because his character is able to attract voters.

“Umno has no other figure other than Ismail. He has a good image. In the course of (Najib’s) court case, he was seen to be transparent, did not interfere, allowed the trial to go on smoothly. There was no disturbance.”

“In politics, perception is important, not about true or false, and for the people, Ismail’s image is good, there is an advantage for him to be BN’s poster boy,” he said.

Mazlan, who is Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Razak Faculty of Technology and Informatics’ lecturer, sees the current situation as unfavourable to Umno and BN.

The opposition’s continuous exposure of irregularities, especially PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli, appears increasingly successful in attracting fence sitters, he said.

“Umno and BN have a bit of a problem in terms of people’s perception. They don’t have an experienced figure as good as Najib to lead the campaign. The party is a bit lost.

“Right now we don’t see what Umno brings (during the election campaign). If they want to raise a topic on unity, Umno has split into two. If they want to focus on stability, Umno is busy fighting.”

“The party does not have a central campaign figure who can do it as well as Najib. When he was sentenced to jail, Umno took a hit,” he said.

Promote Najib’s success as PM

Another analyst, Awang Azman Awang Pawi is of the view that Umno needs to promote the success achieved by Najib’s administration before the party lost to Pakatan Harapan.

The Universiti Malaya lecturer said Umno needs to enlighten voters through their campaign that Najib helped the country’s development.

“The one who was convicted is an individual and not the party. They must lend proper perspective to this. The voters must be clearly enlightened,” he said.

Since Najib is now in prison, Umno and BN need to use their logos as symbols of national achievements, he said.

“Leaders come and go but the party will continue to exist for a long time,” he said.

Awang Azman added that Umno’s staunch supporters will remain convinced that Najib was politically prosecuted, a far greater sentiment than the moderates who emphasise governance issues.

“In Malay culture, Najib’s conviction is considered inappropriate because (the former prime minister) is said to have contributed much to the country with various transformations.”

“So many conservative Umno supporters are influenced by this aspect, but for the modern and moderate Malay community, the issue of national governance is more important,” he said.

Umno leaders also acknowledged that Najib’s absence will have a slight impact on the election campaign.

Umno Supreme Council member Muhammad Razlan Rafii said Najib’s absence was clearly felt because he actively campaigned in every election with the party.

“There is no denying that Najib, during state election and by-election campaigns, worked hard to win seats for the party,” he said.

However, the situation is different for the next general election since the campaign is focused on the respective parliamentary and state constituencies.

“During the by-elections and state election, people are concentrated (in one area). It will not be the case in a general election as campaigning will be spread out across constituencies,” he said.

He is also confident that the element of sympathy among a few people towards Najib will help Umno and BN campaigns, even if the opposition will use it to tarnish the party’s image and integrity.

“One of the things we know is that people will sympathise. (Even if) we don’t campaign, people will see and sympathise and people will vote for us.”

“The opposition will definitely use the case to say this is BN’s mistake. But Umno will take it positively.”

“BN will be accepted by the people again because the people understand what happened. Giving power to PH (is a matter) in vain. That’s why the people are returning to BN,” he said.

His belief is based on Umno’s big victory in the Malacca and Johor elections. – September 3, 2022.