HE was Vladimir Putin’s first prime minister, but Mikhail Kasyanov never in his worst nightmares imagined that his former boss would unleash a full-scale war on Ukraine.

Speaking to AFP in a video interview, Kasyanov, prime minister from 2000 to 2004, said he expected the war to last up to two years but is convinced Russia can return to a democratic path.

The 64-year-old, who championed close ties with the West as prime minister, said, like many Russians, he did not believe in the weeks ahead of the war that it would actually happen.

Kasyanov understood that Putin was not bluffing when he saw him summon the top leadership for a theatrical meeting of the security council three days before the invasion on February 24.

“When I saw the meeting of Russia’s security council I realised, yes, there will be a war,” said Kasyanov.

He added that he felt Putin was already not thinking properly.

“I know these people and by looking at them I saw that Putin is already out of it; not in a medical sense, but in political terms.

“I knew a different Putin.”

After being sacked, Kasyanov joined Russia’s opposition and became one of the Kremlin’s most vocal critics.

He is now the leader of the opposition People’s Freedom party, or Parnas.

‘Complete lawlessness’

Kasyanov said Putin, a former KGB agent who turns 70 in October, has managed to build a system based on fear and impunity over the past 20 years.

“These are the achievements of a system that, with the encouragement of Putin as head of state, has started operating in a more cynical, cruel manner than in the final stages of the Soviet Union.

“Essentially, this is a KGB system based on complete lawlessness. It is clear that they do not expect any punishment.”

Kasyanov said he left Russia because of the war and is living in Europe, but he declined to disclose his location out of concern for his safety.

His close ally and fellow opposition politician Boris Nemtsov was gunned down near the Kremlin in 2015.

Putin’s best-known critic Alexei Navalny, 46, was poisoned with a nerve agent in 2020 and is now in prison.

Kasyanov predicted the war to last for up to two years and said it is imperative that Ukraine win.

“If Ukraine falls, the Baltic states will be next,” he said.

The outcome of the war will also determine Russia’s future, he added.

Kasyanov said he “categorically” disagrees with French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that Putin should not be humiliated.

He also rebuffed calls for Ukraine to cede territory to end the war.

“What has Putin done to deserve this?” he said.

“This is an overly pragmatic position. I believe this is wrong and hope that the West will not go down that path.”

‘Enormous tasks’

Kasyanov said Putin will eventually be replaced by a “quasi-successor” controlled by the security services.

But a successor will not be able to control the system for long and, eventually, Russia will stage free and fair elections, he added.

“I am certain that Russia will return to the path of building a democratic state.”

He estimated it will take about a decade to conduct “de-communisation” and “de-Putinisation” of the country.

“This will be difficult, especially after this criminal war.”

He said trust will have to be re-established with European countries, which he called Russia’s “natural partners”.

Critics in the past accused the Russian opposition of being hopelessly divided, but Kasyanov said he is confident things will be different now.

“I have no doubt that now, after the tragedy that we are all witnessing, the opposition will unite.”

But, he said, Russians will face a huge task rebuilding their country.

“Everything will have to be rebuilt anew. Essentially, an entire set of economic and social reforms should be started all over again.

“These are enormous and difficult tasks and they will have to be done.” – AFP, June 13, 2022.