PEJUANG will face an uphill battle if it decides to go it alone in the next general election without establishing formal cooperation with any political coalitions, political scientists said.

They said Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s two-year-old party does not have the appeal among voters even if it decides to work with Malay professionals and civil society groups.

James Chin of the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said Pejuang’s chances of winning multiple seats in the next election is very minimal, even if they form the “third opposition force”.

Referring to party’s abysmal performance in the recent Johor elections, Chin said it could be a repeat of the results in the general election if it is held this year.

“I’ll be surprised if Pejuang can win more than two seats if the election is held this year.

“Even if they form a third force, it will be a repeat of Johor, where all their candidates will be wiped out,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Last week, after meeting with retired teachers and members of the armed forces, party chairman Dr Mahathir said it is opening its door to cooperating with Malay professionals and civil society groups.

Pejuang went solo in the Johor polls in March where it lost all the 42 seats it contested. All its candidates also lost their deposits.

Chin said the Malay-based party has nowhere to go, given that it is at odds with the main political coalitions in the country.

He said establishing cooperation with civil society groups will not elevate its chances of winning.

“My take is that Pejuang’s options are very limited. They can’t go back to Umno because Dr Mahathir has made it clear that if Umno is under Najib (Razak) – whom he considers a thief –it will not happen.

“(Pejuang) can’t go back to Pakatan Harapan because they basically burned the bridge and the senior leaders in the coalition blame Dr Mahathir for the collapse of the government in 2020.

“So, joining civil society groups and others will not help much because when it comes to the crunch, they are not capable of mounting an election campaign.

“They are good for handling single issues but elections are very different,” he said.

Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia’s Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar also played down Pejuang’s chances of winning big, if they are without a coalition.

He said the party would have a better chance if they are able to work with any existing coalition.

“If Pejuang can be a member of any of the existing coalitions, its chances to get wider support are higher.

“Joining a coalition is a better strategy than going it alone. It (Pejuang) does not have a huge membership to challenge the existing parties.

“Even larger parties need coalition partners to boost their chances,” the political analyst said.

Tunku Mohar said it would be difficult to just work with civil society groups and individuals for the next election.

He, however, questioned which coalition would accept Pejuang as their partner.

“It is difficult to imagine civil society groups or influential individuals being able to mobilise voters during a general election.

“The best option is to join a coalition but questions remain if any coalition would accept Pejuang,” he said.

‘Dr Mahathir factor’ losing steam

Chin added that the “Dr Mahathir factor” is no longer relevant in the current political landscape.

Albeit having the two-term prime minister on their side, Chin said the nonagenarian no longer has the pull among voters.

“Many people feel Dr Mahathir has lost his influence, especially among the rural Malay voters.

“So, it is very hard to try to ride on his name and win some seats in the (next) election,” he said, adding that people are having second thoughts about joining the party.

Describing Pejuang as an establishment for Dr Mahathir and the people who support him, Chin went on to add that the party is likely to cave in if the elder statesman is not around.

“Dr Mahathir is getting old. I feel if he is no longer there, the party will almost certainly collapse,” he said.

Meanwhile, Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said Pejuang could play the role of “spoiler” in GE15.

He said some parties or coalitions do not want to work with the party because of Dr Mahathir.

“Pejuang is mainly playing a spoiler role in the next general election.

“Parties or coalitions that invoke Pejuang’s or its chairman’s wrath – and thus be condemned by it or by Dr Mahathir – their hold on Malay votes may decrease albeit just a little bit.

“And in this age where every vote counts, that could prove fatal to their winning additional seats. So most parties or coalitions cannot afford to incur such wrath, especially from Pejuang’s chairman,” Oh said.

Dr Mahathir confirmed he would not be contesting or defending his Langkawi parliamentary seat in the next election. – June 12, 2022.