BARISAN Nasional and Prime Minister Najib Razak have the upper hand in the 14th general election (GE14), said two political analysts.

Associate Prof Dr Jeniri Amir of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak said voter sentiment against the Pakatan Harapan opposition bloc is on the decline in the past year, while feuds over the allocation of seats could worsen as GE14 looms.

Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said with a more fractious opposition now following PAS’ decision to go solo at GE14, there would no longer be straight fights in most constituencies and voter sentiment would work to BN’s advantage.

“On the other hand, voter perception and opinion of the government has improved because of its commitment to solve the people’s problems, like housing, economy, education, cost of living and job opportunities,” Jeniri said.

“I strongly believe Najib will lead BN to a comfortable win this time, despite attacks from former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and the opposition. Compared with the last few years, BN and Najib are now in a more solid position.”

And with the opposition vote split between PAS and Pakatan Harapan, BN, particularly Umno, is poised to win the bulk of the rural seats and, therefore, the elections, the duo said.

“BN even has a good chance of regaining its two-thirds majority with the three-cornered fights now expected to prevail in GE14 and the bill on re-delineation of boundaries due to be passed by Parliament next month,” said Jeniri.

His confidence in BN’s reclaiming its two-thirds majority is backed by a public opinion poll conducted recently by independent pollster Merdeka Centre.

BN is only 13 seats short of a two-thirds majority.

Sivamurugan said BN has become stronger since 2015 after a brief leadership crisis in Umno when Najib dropped then deputy president and deputy prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin and vice-president Shafie Apdal from the cabinet.

“The prime minister has consolidated his position since based on the strong support within Umno,” he said.

The Malay votes in GE14 would see a five-way split among Umno, PKR, PAS, Amanah and Bersatu but Umno enjoys the upper hand, especially in the rural constituencies, which make up the bulk of the 222 parliamentary seats, he said.

Sabah and Sarawak will also remain BN’s “fixed deposits”, bolstered by Najib’s strong image in the two politically strategic states as the prime minister who cares for their well-being.

Jeniri concurred, saying being still largely rural states, the narrative of politics of development remains relevant in both Sabah and Sarawak, adding that during election time, rural voters are more concerned with bread-and-butter issues.

“It is impossible to win a general election in Malaysia without winning Sabah and Sarawak and rural seats,” he said.

Despite the attack from Dr Mahathir and other opposition leaders on the 1Malaysia Development Bhd issue, Jeniri said, it has little traction among rural voters.

“The opposition parties are nowhere nearer to an electoral pact. In fact, they are still quarrelling about the allocation of seats,” said Jeniri.

GE14 also boils down to the choice between Najib and Dr Mahathir, now leading the opposition.

“Are you telling me that Malaysians want to be ruled by a 93-year-old who was given the opportunity by BN and Umno to lead the country for 22 years? What can he do for one or two years as PM? asked Jeniri. – Bernama, February 14, 2018.