DAP’S losing streak in state elections since 2018 is expected to continue when Johor goes to the polls on Saturday, due to voter disillusionment and stale rhetoric, analysts said.

They said Barisan Nasional’s (BN) Chinese party MCA could be the main beneficiary of DAP’s poor performance after riding the protest votes over the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal to win Johor and Putrajaya four years ago.

Political analyst Liew Wui Churn said firstly, the state elections do not hold much excitement as many voters deem it unnecessary.

“Voters may not be keen to go out to vote due to the Covid-19 epidemic. They are also disappointed with the political situation in the country,” Liew told The Malaysian Insight.

He said DAP’s support from younger voters and outstation voters in 2018 will be less this time.

“In 2018, all opposition parties had a common driving force, which was to overthrow BN. But this (narrative) is somewhat stale now. Not to mention, Johor (until 2018) has always been a BN stronghold,” he said.

“With polling this Saturday, Pakatan Harapan (PH) and DAP can’t seem to be able to turn the tide around.”

PH and DAP have been campaigning on ethics and morals, urging voters not to allow a return to power of the “kleptocrats”, in reference to the 1MDB scandal and Najib Razak. The former prime minister, though convicted in one trial involving the state firm, is campaigning in certain areas in Johor for BN and has been able to draw crowds.

Liew said DAP and PH’s messaging on rejecting corruption and kleptocracy is akin to “campaigning for a general election”, which he said is the tactic that did not work in recent state elections in Sarawak and Malacca, where the opposition coalition also lost.

“They used the same tactic in Sarawak and Malacca and are repeating it in Johor,” he said.

“DAP is campaigning as if this is a general election when the reality is, voters only care about what they can bring to the state.”

In Malacca, BN won 21 out of 28 seats.

A month later, in December, Gabungan Parti Sarawak won 76 out of 82 at the Sarawak state elections.

While an anti-corruption stance is important, Liew said, DAP must not only think it is the most important.

“People are struggling,” he said of job losses and reduced income due to the Covid-19 epidemic and sluggish economy.

In this regard, Liew praised DAP’s candidate in Pekan Nanas, Yeo Tung Siong, who has been focusing on livelihood issues in the constituency.

“Initially, MCA had a strong momentum in Pekan Nanas. But locals said Yeo has changed his strategy to focus on the people’s livelihoods and promised to improve the area,” said Liew.

“This is giving MCA some competition now.”

Liew thinks that of the 15 seats MCA is contesting, it can win at least three.

MCA was wiped out in Johor at the state level in 2018, and won only one parliamentary seat, Ayer Hitam, in that general election.

“If MCA can win three state seats, that is a big breakthrough,” Liew said.

DAP is contesting 14 seats and Liew does not think it will be easy for the PH component party. Johor has 56 state seats.

Lau Zhe Wei, associate professor at International Islamic University Malaysia, also doubts DAP can rise again in this election after Malacca and Sarawak.

“There are various factors, such as outstation voters not returning home. The only thing DAP can rely on now is Undi18, the young voters.

“Even then, this segment is untested and may not support them,” he said of the newly registered voters that number around 750,000 out of Johor’s 2.59 million total voters.

Lau also said voters may be disappointed with PH, which was in power for only 22 months and could not fulfil many of its general election promises. This is being used by BN to its advantage in its campaigning.

Lau predicts that DAP will not be able to retain all its 14 seats and that MCA will win “a few”.

Political analyst Tok Kiah Wah said BN has an advantage in Johor because it is its stronghold.

“BN has traditional grassroots strength here and it is fully capable of forming a government,” he said.

Tok predicts that PH will win seats where it is incumbent, in mixed constituencies and in seats where there are multi-cornered fights.

But it will not be enough to form the state government, he added.

MCA may end up winning five to eight seats, Tok said.

“Unless DAP comes up with a better strategy, voter turnout will be low. If it’s less than 65%, it will be a disadvantage for opposition parties,” he said.

“If it is above 65%, then it will stand a chance.”

In the 2018 general election, PH won 36, of which 14 were by DAP. – March 10, 2022.