IF Saturday’s Sarawak state polls outcome is anything to go by, Pakatan Harapan (PH) is set to do no better in Sarawak in the 15th general election (GE15), analysts said.

“DAP and PKR did very well in Sarawak in the 2018 general election by winning 10 parliamentary seats after bagging 10 – DAP (seven) and PKR (three) – state seats in the Sarawak polls in 2016,” said Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

“Going by that logic, the two parties will also do badly in the next general election here after they only managed to win two seats on Saturday.”

En route to winning the 14th general election, PH had won 10 out of the 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak. Boosted by two independents – Larry Sng (Julau) and Jugah Muhyang @ Tambat (Lubuk Antu) – who joined PKR after the election, the then opposition reduced Gabungan Parti Sarawak’s (GPS) share of state seats to just 19 out of the 31.

But after the Sheraton Move last year, PH only has seven MPs in Sarawak. The seats are Mas Gading, Bandar Kuching, Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang, Sibu and Miri. 

GPS is made up of four parties, namely Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu, Parti Rakyat Sarawak, Progressive Democratic Party and Sarawak United Peoples’ Party.

Awang Azman said the Sarawak state election results indicate that DAP and PKR are losing their urban supporters.

The Sarawak political science lecturer said while GPS had the advantage of being in power in the state, PH did not help itself by the constant bickering.

“The opposition parties (DAP, PKR, Amanah and Parti Sarawak Bersatu) were disunited, clashing among themselves. Moreover, its manifesto on Sarawak leaving Malaysia and playing the racial card only frightened off voters,” said Awang Azman.

He said voters were left with little choice but to pick GPS as they had a better track record of development.

“GPS also earned points with the recent constitutional amendments on Sabah and Sarawak,” he said.

Although PH was not expected to defeat GPS, the coalition only retained two out of the 10 seats it won in 2016.

DAP won two of the 24 seats it contested while PKR and Amanah lost in all the 28 and eight seats they contested respectively.

Fallout from Malacca

International Islamic University Malaysia political science lecturer Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar also believes that the Sarawak election results indicate tough times ahead for PH. 

“Although DAP and PKR were not expected to do well in Malacca and Sarawak, the manner in which they lost was unexpected. I think both parties need to revisit their strategies,” said Tunku Mohar. 

“This means that they shouldn’t quarrel in the open, and listen to the grassroots.”

In Malacca, PH only managed to retain five out of the 15 state seats it won in 2018.

Tunku Mohar said voter disgruntlement with the two parties began in Malacca after PH decided to field two former Umno leaders in last month’s state elections and has followed them across the South China Sea.

Coupled with the fact that both parties have weak grassroots in Sarawak, it was inevitable that they would lose, he said.

Tunku Mohar also believes that DAP and PKR’s heavy defeats in the urban and mixed constituencies in Sarawak do not augur well for them in GE15.

“This shows that GPS has made headway in these areas. DAP and PKR will find it hard to defend their Sarawak seats in GE15, unless some big scandals pop out and can help them win support,” he said.

On Saturday, GPS improved on its 2016 results by winning 76 out of the 82 state seats in Sarawak. Parti Sarawak Bersatu won four seats and DAP, two. 

In 2016, GPS won 72 seats. – December 20, 2021.