A LOW voter turnout, similar to what happened in the recent Malacca elections, could be repeated in the Sarawak polls, political analysts projected.

They gave a few reasons for it – the fear of contracting Covid-19, the unfavourable year-end monsoon weather and restrictive campaign standard operating procedure (SOP) that will kill any election excitement.

A low voter turnout would definitely be bad news for DAP, University of Tasmania Asian expert James Chin said.

Chin said he expects the turnout in most urban areas, the bastion of DAP, to be low because of the fear the older and elderly Chinese voters have about catching Covid-19.

“They are simply scared of going out and getting infected” he said.

He said even if they do come out, it probably will not be in large numbers.

The low turnout, Chin added, will in turn have a major impact on the performance of the lead party in the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH).

He said even though DAP would get fewer votes as a result, “that does not mean they will lose seats… maybe one or two”.

“They will generally hang on to the Chinese votes. Only their margin of victory will be slashed.”

Parti Sarawak Bersatu picked for the Stakan seat in Kuching, George Young Si-Ricord Jr said the conditions leading towards polling day on December 18 are simply not conducive for a high voter turnout.

Like Chin, he also agreed the fear of contracting the Covid-19 is still very much prevalent among Sarawak folk.

To top that, Young said the year-end weather may prove unfavourable for people to go out and cast their ballots.

Crunching some numbers, he said the turnout in the Malacca elections was just below 66%, a figure he described as “a record low” for the state. 

He said 169,127 voters did not exercise their right.

Umno, which won the elections with a two-thirds majority, obtained 122,741 votes or a mere 38.3% of the total votes cast while PH, which got 117,163 votes, or 36.6% – only 1.7% behind.

“The difference between Barisan Nasional’s performance and PH’s in absolute terms is only 5,578 votes and in relative terms a mere 1.7%.

“That figure however, translated into a landslide victory for BN in terms of seats won,” he said, referring to the 21 seats the coalition won to secure a 75% majority in the 28-seat Malacca legislative assembly.

The biggest losers

Young said from his findings, voters in Malacca who were and still are inclined towards PH’s political ideology “despite their misgivings” failed to turn out to vote.

“The take-home or lesson for Sarawak voters to pay heed to here is this: If you fail, for whatever reason, to turn out to vote in an elections that potentially can determine, for good or for worse, your future and that of your children, you may end up getting the hard end of the bargain for the next five years.”

Potentially super tight campaign rules like those employed in Malacca could temper election fervour, Chin said.

“It will restrict the opposition’s campaigning. Holding rallies has always been important in their strategy to build up momentum.

“Now that they could probably not do the rallies, it will have a big bearing (in trying to get the voters out).”

To date, the Election Commission has yet to release the election SOP for Sarawak.

Chin however, is anticipating “a strange election” with a pandemic SOP.

He is trying to figure out how EC will enforce the SOP in rural areas.

“I am not sure how. I suspect in the rural areas, the election campaign will be as usual with plenty of makan, drinks and angpau (red packets).” 

The fear of low turnout and restrictive campaign SOP should matter little to PAS and DAP’s partners in PH – PKR and Amanah, according to Universiti Malaya’s political expert Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

He said this is because they are likely to lose big.

“Let’s be logical about it. Sarawak, like Malacca, is not PKR’s or PAS’ stronghold.”

Despite PKR successfully defending the three seats – Batu Lintang, Krian and Ba Kelalan – it won in the 2011 elections in the last polls in 2016, Awang Azman said even if they fail to win a single seat in the coming elections, it could not be considered a whitewash.

PKR has since lost the seats after the party sacked all the three reps, See Chee How (Batu Lintang), Ali Biju (Krian) and the then Sarawak PKR chairman Baru Bian (Ba Kelalan) for their part in the so-called “Sheraton move”.

“Look at the political logic. The reality is Sarawak is not PKR’s or PAS’ stronghold.

“Expecting these two parties to win big in the Sarawak elections would be like expecting DAP to win Kelantan.”

Awang Azman said PKR will continue to find it difficult to gain support despite having being in the state for two decades because Sarawak Bumiputera voters “have long been comfortable” with state-based parties in the ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak coalition.

He said the same goes to the Islamists in PAS in the state’s Malay-Muslim majority seats.

“They will find it hard to gain support because Sarawak’s Muslim Bumiputeras have always preferred the religious moderates in PBB (Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu) to the religious extremism in PAS.” – December 3, 2021.