THE anticipated low voter turnout makes it hard to predict the outcome for nine marginal seats in the Malacca elections this weekend, said analysts.

Nine of the 28 state seats are pegged as marginal as they were won by narrow margins of less than 1,000 majority votes in the 14th general election (GE14).

Of the marginal seats, six were won by Barisan Nasional (BN), namely Pantai Kundor (772 votes), Taboh Naning (740), Lendu (627), Rim (536), Asahan (275) and Merlimau (130). All six seats were won by Umno.

The other three were won by Pakatan Harapan (PH), namely Klebang (PKR, 789 votes), Durian Tunggal (Amanah, 763) and Gadek (DAP, 307).

Ilham Centre director Hisomuddin Bakar said voter turnout is expected to be low because of voting pattern changes and Covid-19 concerns.

Neither BN nor PH can easily win or maintain their victory in those nine seats, he added.

No big issue to bring up

Hisomuddin said the Malacca elections does not involve big problems that can encourage voters to go out and result in a shift in votes, like what had happened during GE14.

“The big issue factor does not exist in the state elections this time; this has been agreed by voters with whom we spoke.

“In this campaign, there is no dominant issue influencing their (voters) thinking, like the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (scandal) and goods and services tax.

“Even PH has not championed any significant issue nor raised any as its main narrative to win the hearts of voters. So, it can be said that there is none.”

But for Ali Isa, 62, who votes in Gadek, there is one issue that comes to mind: the alleged fraud by politicians involved in sand mining activities.

This is one of the reasons BN lost Gadek to DAP in GE14, claimed the contract worker who makes on average RM1,000 a month.

He said when PH held the state, the activities stopped, but after BN took over, they resumed.

“If I am being honest, I want to give the independent candidate a chance. I will vote for the independent candidate; if he wins, I want to see what he does.”

Ali also wants to vote for an independent candidate because he is upset with the four politicians who pulled support for former chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali, and subsequently triggered the state elections.

The four assemblymen are Idris Haron (Sg Udang), Nor Azman Hassan (Pantai Kundor), Noor Effandi Ahmad (Telok Mas) and Norhizam Hassan Baktee (Pengkalan Batu).

Gadek is one of three seats that will see a six-cornered fight. The other two are the Asahan and Duyong seats.

Covid-19 fear factor

Covid-19 is also a reason why voters may shy away from polling day, with many saying they are scared of contracting the virus.

Azman Atan, 55, who votes in Pantai Kundor, said other than being fed up with the politicians’ behaviour, a lot of voters will not go out to cast their vote for fear of contracting Covid-19.

“My neighbours do not dare to go out to vote due to (risk of) illness. They think that in a situation like this, if they get infected, their families will get infected,” he said, adding that he, too, will skip polling day.

Azman, who supported BN in GE14, told The Malaysian Insight that he does not care who wins this weekend as long as the welfare of the people is protected.

“It does not matter who wins, I want the people to be prosperous.”

Malacca voters indifferent

The Election Commission (EC) expects only 70% of voters will turn up this weekend, compared with the 84.5% during GE14.

Hisomuddin said an Ilham Centre survey also shows that voters are not excited about the Malacca elections.

“Most want to wait and see; that is what makes the state elections dispassionate. This indifference makes it difficult to guess their attitude, whether they will stay with their vote in GE14 or take up other options.”

He said any vote for Bersatu in GE14 is no longer an indication, after the party exited PH in February last year.

“Bersatu got the vote before, but we cannot say that it will get the vote this time. Bersatu will face difficulty in getting support (as it) depends only on Malay votes and PAS voters.” – November 16, 2021.