BERSATU’S performance at the Malacca elections will determine how big a player the party will be in Malaysian politics, analysts said.

Without Pakatan Harapan’s grassroots support in Malacca, which backed the party in the 14th general election, they said Bersatu might struggle to win votes.

It has opted to work with PAS but the Islamist party is not strong in the state.

Mazlan Ali, a political analyst at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said the Malacca elections will be “life or death” for Bersatu.

“That is why these elections are important. If Bersatu and PAS lose every seat, people can see they are nothing in Malaysian politics,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

“If they can win around six or seven seats in the state, it will show that Perikatan Nasional (PN) is a competitor to watch out for.”

Mazlan said if Bersatu performs poorly, it is likely that PAS will also break away from the PN coalition and look for a stronger platform to ensure its own survival.

“PAS is also conflicted, they are putting out messages that show they still hope to work with Umno (even while being in PN).

“If Bersatu loses, PAS will re-evaluate its position and will be open to new co-operation. Anything can happen.”

A defeat for Bersatu in Malacca may also see the party break up.

Leaders like Minister of International Trade and Industry Mohamed Azmin Ali, and Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Zuraida Kamarudin would most likely form a new party if Bersatu is dealt a severe blow in Malacca, added Mazlan.

“Azmin and Zuraida, even if they are with Bersatu now, they have different political philosophies. Most likely they may form a new party,” he said.

It is unlikely that PKR will take back these two defectors, who participated in Muhyiddin’s Sheraton Move and brought down the Pakatan Harapan (PH) federal government last year. Umno will not accept them either, Mazlan added.

In the Malacca elections, Bersatu and Umno will go head-to-head against each other in all 28 seats, even though they are both in the same government led by Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

Universiti Malaya associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Malacca can be the perfect testing ground for Muhyiddin, Azmin and Zuraida to show that they are a force to be reckoned with after breaking ties with Umno.

“This is their chance to show that not only is Bersatu relevant in the context of PN but also in the national political landscape.

“The results of the state elections will determine whether Bersatu will strengthen its position and support from voters,” he said.

Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said that while Bersatu is not expected to win enough seats to form the state government, it must at the very least win three seats.

“It is a given Muhyiddin will not win as many as Umno. If he can win a maximum of three, that shows that Bersatu can take part in the subsequent negotiations to form a ruling coalition.

“If they cannot win even a single seat, then the consequences and the future are dire for Bersatu as a viable political force.”

Oh said Bersatu is also at a disadvantage because it does not have its own grassroots and has to rely on PAS.

“They are trying to get the support from PAS, but as a political party you cannot continue to borrow support from another party.

“Let’s see how they perform this. If, even with PAS’s help, they still can’t win a few seats, then Bersatu is unfortunately a goner.”

Bersatu’s advantage

However, Ilham Centre’s executive director Hisommudin Bakar was less pessimistic about Bersatu and PN’s future, saying that Muhyiddin’s attempts to be on the ground much earlier than other parties to meet with voters could work to his advantage.

“Muhyiddin has been aggressively meeting voters in the state. Azmin, too, was with Mas Ermieyati Samsudin when they launched the election machinery, which was also much earlier than other parties.

“PN knows it has to work a lot harder to dominate Umno in Malacca. They also have no choice but to ensure that they can retain the two seats won in GE14, while adding on more to prove that they are on par with Barisan Nasional and PH.”

In GE14, Bersatu won the Paya Rumput seat and Telok Mas seat under the PH banner.

Hisommudin said Bersatu also needs to be smart and utilise Muhyiddin’s popularity in Malacca to win votes.

“His image in Malacca is quite strong among the voters, who are grateful for his help while he was still prime minister.

“PN needs to work hard in Malacca to ensure that Bersatu, PAS and Gerakan will remain relevant in the Malacca context, which will be used to measure its support in GE15.”

PN is contesting all 28 seats in Malacca. Bersatu will contest 15 seats, PAS eight and Gerakan five.

Campaigning is currently underway with strict adherence to standard operating procedures and a total ban on physical campaigning.

The state will go to the polls on November 20. – November 10, 2021.