WHILE there are no clear signs of a backlash against the government and the outlook positive for the party, can MCA regain ground it lost over the last two general elections?

The party has set an ambitious target of winning 15 seats in the 14th general election but political analyst Dr Phoon Wing Keong said while it might not meet its target, it might make some gains.

Phoon, vice-chairman at the Centre of Malaysian Chinese Studies, said Pakatan Harapan’s choice of prime minister could upset any plan MCA had if Dr Mahathir Mohamad succeeds in creating a Malay tsunami.

“Even if the ‘tsunami’ turns out to be mere ripples, it could offset any potential benefit MCA could gain from Chinese votes swinging back to the party,” he told The Malaysian Insight.

Impact of #UndiRosak

After Dr Mahathir became the opposition’s PM designate, the #UndiRosak campaign took off.

This is a significant development as many perceive the campaign as being led by those disenchanted with the opposition, Phoon said.

If the spoilt-vote campaign is successful, both Barisan Nasional and MCA will gain from it.

According to current surveys, 70% of Chinese voters are still with the opposition, he said.

Phoon said MCA hopes that more Chinese voters will spoil their votes because more spoilt votes equals to fewer votes for the opposition.

“If this spoilt-vote campaign really takes off, the number of Chinese voters will drop. This is, of course, advantageous to BN and MCA.”

The spoilt-vote campaign aside, MCA is also hoping for Chinese votes to swing back to BN.

As GE14 loom, the party has been pitching its past track record in providing services to the community.

Over the last two general elections, opposition party candidates have won but many have been found wanting in providing service, Phoon said.

Voters in Perlis and Johor have found opposition lawmakers who did not perform grassroots work as often as past MCA leaders, and this has continuously been a subject of discussion among the community in recent years.

Phoon noted MCA has strong grassroots network in the two states, which has been pushing its case with the Chinese in the state to return its candidates to power.

“Voters in these constituencies may compare their current representatives from the previous ones from MCA, and vote for MCA in GE14.”

Phoon said this pitch will resonate with those who supported MCA over the years but switched allegiance to the opposition in the last two elections.

Malay tsunami offsets MCA’s advantages

Considering MCA’s two advantages – spoilt votes and voters swinging back to BN – PH seems to be banking on Dr Mahathir’s ability to move the Malay ground to its cause and negate any positive MCA gains.

“I believe Dr Mahathir will be able to wrest some votes from Umno. They include those from the older generation and Malays from rural areas who are unhappy with Umno because of the rising cost of living and GST. Dr Mahathir’s charisma has also won over some new voters,” Phoon said.

But how many Malay voters will switch to create a tsunami?

Phoon said there are those who think that Dr Mahathir’s core support group in Felda areas have always voted for BN and are unlikely to vote for the opposition.

Phoon, however, said this is not entirely accurate.

“The first generation of Felda settlers are undoubtedly grateful towards Umno, but the second generation of settlers are another story, some of them don’t even live in Felda areas. Not all of them will support Umno.”

Just as times have changed, Felda settlers are no longer a certainty.

“Dr Mahathir will affect Malay support for Umno, but to what degree, and whether it will cause a tsunami is still uncertain.

“Only with more than 10% or above swing votes can you consider it a tsunami, even if this is not enough to change government, this will change Umno’s political landscape. As things stand, about 5% swing votes is possible.”

One + one less than two

According to the 2016 population census, the racial make-up of Malaysia now consists of 68.6% Bumiputeras, Chinese (23.4%), Indians (7%) and others (1%).

Even though Chinese votes are trickling back to MCA, this advantage can be offset with a mere 5% of Malay swing votes, and the Chinese swing vote only makes up 2% to 3%.

Phoon said Dr Mahathir will be able to wrest some BN votes, “if not, then there is no point to him being in the fray”.

Due to these three factors, a Malay tsunami will account for more votes than the two advantages that the MCA has. For this reason, one plus one is less than two.

So why is MCA still confident of winning 15 parliamentary seats in GE14?

Phoon said this might not be MCA’s confidence, but Umno’s demand.

“MCA states it wants to win 15 seats, but this isn’t its target. This is the KPI (key performance indicator) given by Umno.

“I believe MCA is helpless, but they have several ministerial positions… this isn’t MCA’s own target, I believe MCA does not have the confidence.”

MCA’s past election results do not augur well. In 1999, MCA had 28 parliamentary seats. Even during the 1986 general election, MCA’s 24 seats were only reduced to 17, far more than the seven parliamentary seats and 11 state seats it has now.

In GE14, if MCA can win 15 seats, it will be considered a major victory. However, the possibility appears slim.

MCA’s seats are all mixed seats, whether the party can retain the seats depends on how well the opposition performs.

The vulnerable seats include MCA president Liow Tiong Lai’s Bentong seat, which was won by a razor-thin majority of 379 votes, and deputy minister Chua Tee Yong’s Labis seat, won by 353 votes. Phoon said if the opposition fields stronger candidates in MCA’s marginal seats, the party will be facing pressure.

On the other hand, if DAP does not mobilise and lets its candidates stay in safe seats, MCA will not have much trouble retaining the seven seats.

But from the look of things, DAP is set on taking its fight to the MCA bastions.

Talk is the party wants to field its incumbent Seputeh MP Teresa Kok against MCA vice-president Chew Mei Fun.

It also wants to pit DAP chief Liew Chin Tong against MCA deputy president Wee Ka Siong.

If this scenario unfolds, can MCA survive this general election?

“If the opposition retreats to safe seats, then nothing much will change. But now, DAP is on the move, even if MCA can keep the seven seats it has, it’ll just be stagnant.” – January 29, 2018.