IF there were any doubt on Umno’s feelings for Bersatu, it should be put to rest with the older Malay party’s general assembly last weekend.

In no uncertain terms, the party confirmed it would sever ties with Bersatu before the next elections, and wants that to happen as soon as the Emergency is lifted.

Drawing a line in the sand, it sent a clear message to PAS to pick a side, sounded a clarion call to revive Barisan Nasional (BN), and chided some of their leaders who were seen as cosying up to Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Umno has several options to move forward in taking on the general elections, which, if its wish manifests, should be around August.

Barisan Nasional

Ideally, this would be the best scenario not only for Umno, but perhaps even for national politics; having a multiracial coalition take on another as equals.

For Umno, it would restore their position as the undisputed leader and sole Malay-Muslim representative party. Not only would this allow for better, more well-rounded and balanced policies to be contested, it could help halt the worsening racial divide, which recent voting patterns helped exacerbate.

The problem with this is, in its present form, BN is in no shape to take on Pakatan Harapan or PN. Most of its 14 component parties have left, with the Borneo parties joining either the Sabah or Sarawakian break-off coalitions, while fringe Peninsula parties like Gerakan and PPP abandoned ship with the 2018 loss.

BN will need to consolidate its power base and re-mobilise its considerable resources for this, and there may not be enough time for it to do so.

BN is left with the original three founding members of Umno, MCA and MIC, along with PBRS, a Sabah party that controls one seat. 

Muafakat Nasional

With Muafakat Nasional (MN), Umno would have to share the centre stage with PAS, with both parties targeting the same demographic. Political power would have to be shared and Umno will need to consult PAS, particularly on issues pertaining to Islam, where they are seen as more authoritative, which may not necessarily be a good thing for Umno.

PAS may also want to bring in their allies from their Gagasan Sejahtera over to counter-balance BN’s multicultural influence and potentially obtain more political power from positions reserved for non-Muslims, for their own alliance.

While this makes sense to appeal to a wider audience, the reality is that PAS’ partners are much smaller than BN’s, and (its partner in Gagasan) Parti Ikatan Bangsa Malaysia, simply did not manage to attract any significant non-Muslim support.

To further complicate matters, Bersatu technically has accepted MN’s invitation for it to join, placing all three Malay-Muslim parties under one banner.

Going solo 

Although Umno has more or less made its position known, BN components have yet to make theirs known. Anecdotal indications show MCA and MIC to be quite comfortable with PN, having secured largesse rather disproportionate to their one and two parliamentary seats, respectively. 

Umno has been unable to assert itself as it once did as BN lynchpin, in no small part due to the loss of the office of prime minister and its reduced role even though it regained its seat at the government table, and holds the most federal seats of the bloc.

Though its grassroots may be irritated, it must realise Umno lacks the branding and resources it did just three years ago.

Supply and confidence 

This equation was once hotly discussed at the height of the Perak leadership tussle, which eventually saw minority Menteri Besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu removed rather unceremoniously with the awkward but effective combined vote of Umno and PH.

At first, it seemed obvious – DAP fills in the gap of support that MCA and MIC lost ground to, and Umno recovers its position as the dominant Malay party, and a political cooperation along the lines of pre-2008 BN guarantees political power by creating an anchor entity that keeps other parties grounded.

While practical, ideological differences make this complicated, with pressure exerted by party veterans and jittery divisional warlords alike. With both parties having their internal elections around the corner, neither can afford to be seen as “soft”, least with their target political boogeymen.

With the current volatility though, this may make the most sense, for stability, expedience, even as a means for both Umno and DAP to check their own allies.

Whichever choice Umno makes, with just four months till its own deadline, it has to make it quick. Bersatu too, will make its moves based on Umno decisions, and they might just take a wait-and-see approach, given that little works in their favour, at the moment.

The leadership of the government affords them that luxury, for now. – March 31, 2021.

* Emmanuel Joseph firmly believes that Klang is the best place on Earth, and that motivated people can do far more good than any leader with motive.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.